When SPY makes a new high while indicators are lagging, watch out below...watch is in effect...
VXX to all time low...nearly guaranteed...what a safety net?
Posted 11 October 2019 - 08:05 PM
When SPY makes a new high while indicators are lagging, watch out below...watch is in effect...
VXX to all time low...nearly guaranteed...what a safety net?
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. All posted trades are fake (aka. paper) trades.
Posted 11 October 2019 - 08:40 PM
Posted 11 October 2019 - 08:51 PM
True, but we are so close to the top so it is important to be aware of it.
Let's say on Monday/Tuesday SPY makes a ATH, in all likelihood indicators will manifest a divergence. For the past year+ SPX looses 2-3% in a blink...So if you are not conditioned it is very difficult to make money on the downside or take a defense.
Edited by Harapa, 11 October 2019 - 08:57 PM.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. All posted trades are fake (aka. paper) trades.
Posted 11 October 2019 - 09:17 PM
Posted 11 October 2019 - 09:47 PM
The real huge positive is the breadth is super strong
This is a big positive, possibly offsetting the price/momentum bearish divergences.
AD line made a new ATH before April 2010 flash crash, Aug 2011 mini crash & Jan 2018 mini crash (to name the few)...AD line is not a good timing tool. Actually most corrections ensue from a high AD line.
BTW, 10% Model uses AD and UDV as a variable.
Edited by Harapa, 11 October 2019 - 09:49 PM.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. All posted trades are fake (aka. paper) trades.
Posted 12 October 2019 - 06:02 AM
Posted 12 October 2019 - 06:14 AM
Are your indicators (10% model) in the same position as in August 2011? Same as in 2010 and 2018?
All of these indicators are just trying to produce some sort of odds/path of least resistance next steps the market Should take.
Entire history (since 2004) of the set up is posted for its inspection. Data since 2013 (first published) should be considered out of the box.
True, all forms of TA are probability analysis.
Edited by Harapa, 12 October 2019 - 06:18 AM.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. All posted trades are fake (aka. paper) trades.
Posted 12 October 2019 - 06:40 AM
This is a very good ( & educational) post on AD line shenanigans.
In Conclusion...So if you are expecting the A-D line to signal weakness in stocks ahead of a decline in stocks of 5-10%, you're in for a bad surprise
And I agree
Edited by Harapa, 12 October 2019 - 06:42 AM.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. All posted trades are fake (aka. paper) trades.
Posted 12 October 2019 - 12:56 PM
Posted 12 October 2019 - 11:13 PM
It has started now... I think we have a 5-7% correction in the next 2.5 weeks. I see 2825 in this time frame...
Then the rally begins....
my 2 cents