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This Time is different ? all-in FOMO indicator approaching Aug & Sep 2018 highs


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 08:31 PM

Good stuff from Kerberos

 

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    Another set of Breadth indicators study this weekend. If one sees synchronized divergences among all breadth indicators, one might wonder they could be all correlated So, I started from a different approach, using a completely non-correlated measurement Breadths vs GEX Diverg

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This time is different? Another euphoria all-in FOMO indicator, approaching Aug & Sep 2018 highs before 600+ $SPX plunge. Higher than Late 2017 and Jan 2018 highs before #Volmageddon This time is different? with not-QE4ever?

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4:31 PM - 11 Nov 2019

Edited by dTraderB, 11 November 2019 - 08:34 PM.


#2 dTraderB

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 08:34 PM

Below zero

 

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#3 dTraderB

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 08:36 PM

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

 

https://www.marketin...summation-index

 

https://www.marketin...ce-decline-line



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 08:40 PM

  1. NASDAQ Breadth negative divergence. Possibly reversal soon

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    Breadth Visual NYAD possible sell signal soon??

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#5 dTraderB

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 08:43 PM

Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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Helene Meisler Retweeted Ed van their Walt

And there ya have it.

Helene Meisler added,

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Ed van their WaltVerified account @EdVanDerWalt
Stocks will never ever go down again.
11:04 AM - 11 Nov 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 08:46 PM

Excitement mounts..... 

 

The president will have a chance to expand on his trade-agreement thinking tomorrow in a speech before the Economic Club of New York. Investors will be listening closely to any indications of how negotiations are progressing and what the U.S.'s conditions for tariff removal might be. Barron's will be in attendance.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be in the spotlight less than 24 hours later, when he testifies before Congress’s Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday. New market-moving information may be sparse, given that it has been just two weeks since Powell’s public remarks after the Fed’s rate-setting committee’s latest meeting.

As for earnings, most of big companies' third-quarter results are out. S&P 500 earnings per share are on pace to post an annual decline for the first time since 2016.



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 08:47 PM

From WSJ:

 

CLO Selloff Flashes Warning to Junk Bond Market

By Matt Wirz, credit markets reporter

   

Stocks rose to fresh highs in October, often a tumultuous month for U.S. shares. One corner of the debt market had a rougher time.

Some securities in the $680 billion market for collateralized loan obligations, or CLOs, lost about 5% in October, reflecting worries about rising risk in the complex investment vehicles. The declines were a rare stumble for the CLO market, which has grown by about $350 billion in the past three years, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, fueled by demand from government pensions, hedge funds and other yield-hungry investors. 

“We think there’s more volatility coming,” said Maggie Wang, head of U.S. CLO strategy at Citigroup. “We recommend investors reduce risk and stay with cleaner portfolios and better managers.”

The trouble hitting CLOs could be a sign that the trillion-dollar market for high-yield bonds is also headed for a rough patch.

CLO managers buy bundles of below-investment-grade, or “leveraged,” corporate loans using money raised by selling bonds and stock to outside investors. Cash flow from the bundled loans pays interest and principal on the CLO bond with any surplus going to the CLO shareholders.

CLOs resemble the mortgage-backed bonds that imploded in 2008, but very few defaulted in the credit crisis, a key driver of their recent popularity. Prices for their shares and bonds, however, plummeted at the time, and holders who sold out took heavy losses.

Now some CLO bond prices are falling again. That’s because the riskier loans the CLOs own are dropping in value as the companies that borrowed them start running out of cash. CLO bonds rated double-B, which are among the riskiest CLO securities, returned about 10% through June. But recent declines, especially last month, erased most of the gains, giving holders a roughly 1% return this year through October.

That contrasts sharply with high-yield bonds. Many of the same companies to which CLOs lend issue junk bonds, which returned about 12% through October, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“If you think that double-B CLOs are giving a warning sign, that says something about high yield,” said David Preston, head of CLO research at Wells Fargo. “It’s hard to see how both markets can be right.”



#8 da_cheif

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 10:03 PM

being bearish is easy ....anybody can do it    :>)



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:50 AM

Should have slept until 7am. Listless and aimless morning, so far.

 

Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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Yes but in May they had 32% in cash and now 25%. So they are getting further into the pool. The world’s rich is readying for a major stock sell-off, UBS Wealth says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-12/world-s-rich-readying-for-major-stock-sell-off-ubs-wealth-says  via @markets

 



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:51 AM

Tienanmen Square, 2019? 

 

Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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This HK situation is concerning. Hong Kong protests take over universities and business district https://www.wsj.com/articles/protests-take-over-hong-kong-universities-business-district-11573551681?shareToken=stc5744f4124594a56aeec1608bb7edcaa  via @WSJ