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Posted 14 November 2019 - 06:40 AM
Posted 14 November 2019 - 06:43 AM
Closing thoughts – wrapping up ST tactical concerns. 5/ What *might* a pullback look like? Maybe 2-3% with 50/100d at 3k $SPX in Dec with daily momentum reset. If Bulls retake control before year-end, all time frames would be aligned higher into next year (very powerful setup).
Posted 14 November 2019 - 06:44 AM
NEW Article: “ S&P 100 Index Still Bullish, But The Bear Is Starting To Wake Up” - https://www.seeitmarket.com/sp-100-index-still-bullish-but-bear-is-starting-to-wake-up/ … by @TradingOnMark $OEX $SPX $RUT
Posted 14 November 2019 - 06:47 AM
from Sentiment Trader, link in post above
Several indicators influenced by the options market are throwing off concerning readings, showing that traders have become complacent about the current trend.
We’re currently seeing weeks of low put/call readings, with low premiums being paid for put protection, very low expectations for an imminent volatility event, and heavy betting against a rise in volatility by speculators.
If we combine the four factors above by looking at where each of them is compared to their range over the past year, then they’re all in the bottom 3% of their ranges. Since 2007, no other time has seen all four of them so compressed at the same time. There have been a handful of days that saw a low average reading, though, even if they weren’t all extreme at the same time.
While that hasn’t led to a consistent drop in stocks, it has almost always preceded a big jump in the VIX within the next two months. Over the next two months, the VIX rose every time but once – and that was the time it spiked more than 50% immediately after this signal in 2016, then settled back in the months afterward.
Posted 14 November 2019 - 06:49 AM
For the first time in months, the Nasdaq today triggered both Hindenburg Omen and Titantic Syndrome warning signs. If you made fun of the silly names in July, then you're in Twitter jail and ya need to check yo' self. https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1154508764575219714 …
Posted 14 November 2019 - 06:50 AM
@sentimentrader Confidence gap one of widest in 5 years at >-60%. When S&P 500 was w/i 1% of multi-year high, 64 other days when spread so wide. Over next 3 months, only 15 of those days had positive return (23% win rate). S&P’s avg risk over next few months -3.8% v reward +1.4%