1289 replies to this topic

[Smithy]

Senor:

yeah the speed of this decline has been unreal, which makes me think this is a fast and furious correction in a longer tern bull market, I would favor this has pretty decent V bottom potential vs a long and contracted "bottoming process" as we already had that, I was not around today so just catching up, can't believe we hit that 50% retrace/prev 4th area already - just a wild day, and rates really plunged (dollar too) today AND perhaps a FINAL massive new HIGH in the GSR? Shades of 2008 here IMO with MASSIVE volume in SLV-GLD-GDX-GDXJ

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Y'know Senor you raise a good point about the 50%/prev 4th. Is this drop correcting the upmove from 1450 to 1689, or the whole 18 months from 1160 to 1689?

 

 

 

Edited by Smithy, 28 February 2020 - 11:34 PM.

[Russ]

 

yeah the speed of this decline has been unreal, which makes me think this is a fast and furious correction in a longer tern bull market, I would favor this has pretty decent V bottom potential vs a long and contracted "bottoming process" as we already had that, I was not around today so just catching up, can't believe we hit that 50% retrace/prev 4th area already - just a wild day, and rates really plunged (dollar too) today AND perhaps a FINAL massive new HIGH in the GSR? Shades of 2008 here IMO with MASSIVE volume in SLV-GLD-GDX-GDXJ

 

 

Senor

 

Once again we see Armstrong's Pi Cycle nailed it, the New York Stock Exchange Peaked 1 day before the cycle date of Jan. 18. formed an M Top and we got the biggest crash since the 2008 crash which happened after the housing and banking indices peaked right on the pi cycle date in early 2007. Armstrong is now saying this will be like a sling shot for the markets, once the low comes in (I think early April) then the markets will shoot back up with gusto because capital will continue to seek shelter from government mismanagement and debt in private companies.

Edited by Russ, 29 February 2020 - 10:51 AM.

[senorBS]

A post on OPTIX sentiment (I believer from sentimenttrader) from another board, very interesting and supportive of a V type bottom? we see

 

"Lowest Optix readings for GDX and J I have ever seen, 5 and 3, respectively. Whether this is the greatest royal flush of all time or indicative of a major trend change still remains to be seen, but these readings suggest a meaningful upside retracement at the very least."

[K Wave]

I am guessing that PL has 4-5 more weeks down after that awful breach of support last week. Not sure what level that might be when all is said and done.

 

SI also looking very suspect here.

 

GC obviously the strongest by far, but that massive bearish engulfing leads me to believe more down for a while there as well.

The closest I could find in history to today was Oct 1978....price had emerged over daily 900 MA, and then done a couple of stair steps up, and then got smacked back down to the 200 day over multiple weeks after a huge weekly bearish engulfing.

Ideally for bull case, 1490-1500 area holds as support over coming weeks.

[dougie]

A post on OPTIX sentiment (I believer from sentimenttrader) from another board, very interesting and supportive of a V type bottom? we see

 

"Lowest Optix readings for GDX and J I have ever seen, 5 and 3, respectively. Whether this is the greatest royal flush of all time or indicative of a major trend change still remains to be seen, but these readings suggest a meaningful upside retracement at the very least."

Sure seems to me too much techical damage was done for a V bottom Senor. At least in broad markets...

[Russ]

 

A post on OPTIX sentiment (I believer from sentimenttrader) from another board, very interesting and supportive of a V type bottom? we see

 

"Lowest Optix readings for GDX and J I have ever seen, 5 and 3, respectively. Whether this is the greatest royal flush of all time or indicative of a major trend change still remains to be seen, but these readings suggest a meaningful upside retracement at the very least."

Sure seems to me too much techical damage was done for a V bottom Senor. At least in broad markets...

 

And this from Armstrong: The Dow's next major test is the 40,000 level:  Martin Armstrong

 

 

17,074 views

•Jan 24, 2020

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=7wJ_BTOLxxo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

corporate-profits-to-decline-into-2021

 

Feb 27, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

 

"ANSWER: Yes. I warned at the WEC that we were approaching a point where we could see a correction unfold in US equities. Corporate earnings should have peaked after a 19-year rally in 2019. There was a major spike rally into 2018-2019 that has been impacted by the Trump tax cuts and the corporate buy-backs so earnings rise in proportion to outstanding shares. There should be a two-year correction into 2021."

 

Insofar as the pressure on the Federal Reserve, we can see that pressure has been building in the form of the Repo Crisis into February. There is a Directional Change here with February and we should expect higher volatility in April/May where we have a turning point and a Directional Change. The entire Repo Crisis may begin to cause a severe crisis of confidence by the time we reach May/June.

Yes, this appears to be the beginning of a slingshot move.

[dougie]

 

A post on OPTIX sentiment (I believer from sentimenttrader) from another board, very interesting and supportive of a V type bottom? we see

 

"Lowest Optix readings for GDX and J I have ever seen, 5 and 3, respectively. Whether this is the greatest royal flush of all time or indicative of a major trend change still remains to be seen, but these readings suggest a meaningful upside retracement at the very least."

Sure seems to me too much techical damage was done for a V bottom Senor. At least in broad markets...

 

Are ther any good examples where we did a V bottom with this massive technical damage? i cant think of any

[dougie]

 

 

A post on OPTIX sentiment (I believer from sentimenttrader) from another board, very interesting and supportive of a V type bottom? we see

 

"Lowest Optix readings for GDX and J I have ever seen, 5 and 3, respectively. Whether this is the greatest royal flush of all time or indicative of a major trend change still remains to be seen, but these readings suggest a meaningful upside retracement at the very least."

Sure seems to me too much techical damage was done for a V bottom Senor. At least in broad markets...

 

And this from Armstrong: The Dow's next major test is the 40,000 level:  Martin Armstrong

 

 

17,074 views

•Jan 24, 2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=7wJ_BTOLxxo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

corporate-profits-to-decline-into-2021

 

Feb 27, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

 

"ANSWER: Yes. I warned at the WEC that we were approaching a point where we could see a correction unfold in US equities. Corporate earnings should have peaked after a 19-year rally in 2019. There was a major spike rally into 2018-2019 that has been impacted by the Trump tax cuts and the corporate buy-backs so earnings rise in proportion to outstanding shares. There should be a two-year correction into 2021."

 

Insofar as the pressure on the Federal Reserve, we can see that pressure has been building in the form of the Repo Crisis into February. There is a Directional Change here with February and we should expect higher volatility in April/May where we have a turning point and a Directional Change. The entire Repo Crisis may begin to cause a severe crisis of confidence by the time we reach May/June.

Yes, this appears to be the beginning of a slingshot move.

 

wait, a two year correction but we are going to 40K?

[Russ]

I also have this projection for a NYSE low in Oct. 2021 which ties in with what Martin said above... 

Edited by Russ, 01 March 2020 - 05:05 PM.

[dougie]

I also have this projection for a NYSE low in Oct. 2021 which ties in with what Martin said above... 

Russ are we testing 40k first or after 2021?