1289 replies to this topic

[Russ]

That's the 40K question Dougie,  Armstrong has predicted that earnings will tank into 2021 but he also says a slingshot it unfolding. I have a low for early April for the spx but I don't know how strong the rally after that will be, I also have the NYSE chart showing a low in 2021. I have my doubts about 40K showing going into the 2021 date as momentum is also rolling over (see chart) but I am also aware of the US stock markets being perceived as safety as the debt crisis unfolds in Europe and Japan. Don Wolanchuk continues to say 'watch the sky' longer term, although he warned his followers a week ago of trouble for this past week.  Interesting times. 

[dougie]

or maybe talking out of both sides of their moths mean they can always appear correct

[Russ]

or maybe talking out of both sides of their moths mean they can always appear correct

This is an interesting chart too.. 

[dharma]

powerful week 

dot plots predicting a 1/2 pt cut in march . this action all reminds me of 08-09  from a price perspective on gold we are in an area now which could determine where we are heading  1584 starts this price cycle 1573 ended the last  price cycle holding here would be a sign of strength

there are more #s but for immediate present that is what i am watching.  miners main expense is crude oil. so w/crude prices in the tank miners are doing very well  in terms of mining gold and making profits.  the gold/silver ratio at 100/1 is interesting .   not that i am going to step in front of that train. platinum needs to be fabricated as china comes back on stream supplies willl be used up s/africa is a mess , they have instituted rules for electricity usage. i dont think much is coming out of there

sure there has been technical damage.  just as the market woke up one day and realized the damage caused by corona . it will wake up one day and realize  the fed printing and lowering rates is going to debase the currency     its your money . its your choice. the stock market crash was an easy call.  gold did what its doing in every other crash that has occurred since 87   now what else can you show me

dharma

[senorBS]

 

A post on OPTIX sentiment (I believer from sentimenttrader) from another board, very interesting and supportive of a V type bottom? we see

 

"Lowest Optix readings for GDX and J I have ever seen, 5 and 3, respectively. Whether this is the greatest royal flush of all time or indicative of a major trend change still remains to be seen, but these readings suggest a meaningful upside retracement at the very least."

Sure seems to me too much techical damage was done for a V bottom Senor. At least in broad markets...

 

only talking about gold/silver/miners, that GDXJ possible count of 5 up with a 50% plus a little retracement hit Friday below 36, GSR with its huge spike to another new many decade high, massive volume across the metals sector, those panic numbers from OPTIX. I am not "predicting" a V bottom but IMO if there ever was a good case for one it is here, and IMO the ONLY CHOICE HERE is for even more MASSIVE MONEY CREATION - I mean what else is there given the unfathomable debt levels?

 

Senor

[dharma]

https://pbs.twimg.co...=png&name=small

 

https://pbs.twimg.co...jpg&name=medium

 

https://pbs.twimg.co...=jpg&name=large

dharma

Edited by dharma, 01 March 2020 - 09:41 PM.

[Russ]

or maybe talking out of both sides of their moths mean they can always appear correct

Based on the below, this would imply Armstrong's model predicts that poor earnings will not stop the stock market from moving up to the Dow 40,000 level.

 

"The German top newspaper, Die Welt, commented on the stock market decline mentioning our perspective correctly February 28, 2020:

The crucial question for investors is now whether the stock market is drifting into a bear market, whether it is losing 20 percent or more, or whether there is a quick and strong recovery. Martin Armstrong currently believes a bear market is unlikely: “The rally that started in 2009 was the most hated rally in stock market history,” says the capital market expert from independent research firm Armstrong Economics."

 

https://www.armstron...ket-in-history/

Edited by Russ, 02 March 2020 - 08:01 AM.

[linrom1]

I got my eye on ALL inverse gold and silver tracking ETFs: DGLD, DSLV, DUST and JDST. These should be nothing short of money making machines...waiting for rebound in indexes and metals to fade.

[senorBS]

 

 

A post on OPTIX sentiment (I believer from sentimenttrader) from another board, very interesting and supportive of a V type bottom? we see

 

"Lowest Optix readings for GDX and J I have ever seen, 5 and 3, respectively. Whether this is the greatest royal flush of all time or indicative of a major trend change still remains to be seen, but these readings suggest a meaningful upside retracement at the very least."

Sure seems to me too much techical damage was done for a V bottom Senor. At least in broad markets...

 

only talking about gold/silver/miners, that GDXJ possible count of 5 up with a 50% plus a little retracement hit Friday below 36, GSR with its huge spike to another new many decade high, massive volume across the metals sector, those panic numbers from OPTIX. I am not "predicting" a V bottom but IMO if there ever was a good case for one it is here, and IMO the ONLY CHOICE HERE is for even more MASSIVE MONEY CREATION - I mean what else is there given the unfathomable debt levels?

 

Senor

 

IMO today's miner action is supportive of a potential V bottom in the miners/silver etc. Looking at a lot of miner charts (individual stocks as well) and its very interesting IMO. time will tell

 

Senor

[dharma]

so far we have a bounce , is it a dead cat bounce? or a V bottom? its way too early to come to conclusions.but at one point last week w/the broad market in the crapper and gold having a nice gain, it looked like a shift was about to take place. then the gold market got hit.  i do have turns 6=9  . i do expect coordinated intervention . the debt clock is a reality reminder.    this corona virus is really hyped. 

it seems to spread quite easily.  the dot plot seems to indicate we are going to have several rate cuts.  so far gold stopped right where it needed to stop. 

dharma