1289 replies to this topic

[gannman]

and i also think based on what is going on in the debt markets we could see gold and silver 

 

have a hyper move where they might double in 5 or 6 months. i think that is very possible

 

but it will go hand in hand with a panic. i am holding everying i have no need to seel anything 

[Russ]

nice Russ

Thanks Dougie and Gannman, I could be wrong but I doubt there is anyone in the whole world that predicted to the day the low about 3 months before it happened. The next trick is to find the next high which should come in Feb to March, HUI is suggesting a high next August, both could be true, it will require more confirmation as time advances. We are now heading into Armstrong's pi cycle date of late Jan 2020 which is the main turn in the Economic Confidence Model, he thinks the debt crisis is going to pick up steam in 2020 and also gold and commodities into the next decade.

Edited by Russ, 12 December 2019 - 12:13 AM.

[tradesurfer]

Nice work Russ.  Armstrong's monthly timing model shows the Month of March for the DJIA as a very strong Panic Cycle and Internal Volatility.   So that would seem to match up with your idea about a high for metals in March (inverse to stock market)

 

And then also there was that VIX buyer of April 65 call options expecting a super spike in volatility.

 

 

Panic Cycle

 

The Panic Cycle Models identify potential timing of abrupt, possibly dramatic price movement. A Panic Cycle differs from a turning point or a directional change insofar as it does not necessarily reflect a high or low, nor is it attempting to reflect the beginning of a change in trend.

 

We’ve observed that approximately 70% of the time, a Panic Cycle has been an outside reversal (e.g. price exceeding the previous session high while also penetrating its low), or capitulation, whereas approximately 30% of the time it has been a relatively fast one way move.

 

(Note: the use of the term ‘reversal’ in the phrase ‘outside reversal’ has absolutely no relation to the "Reversals" from the proprietary Reversal System available in Socrates – it simply refers to a dramatic price move in which a market price exceeds the previous session high while also penetrating its low ).

 

 

Volatility (Internal and Overnight)

 

The Volatility Models provides an indication for when a change in the current volatility trend may take place. Volatility is only concerned with percentage movement, rather than the direction or whether it is a high or low. The targets in this model reflect potential turning points, but in volatility terms – thus, the low in volatility might form on the highest bar while the high in volatility could unfold on the lowest bar.

 

Volatility is measured in three primary manners: internal (difference between high/low of trading session), overnight (previous close to open), and general volatility (close to close).

Edited by tradesurfer, 12 December 2019 - 01:18 AM.

[linrom1]

 

While I don't think SILVER has bottomed at 16.50, I though I'll give it a try to make this move an impulse. So here it goes.

[crossd]

news a.m. Thursday..

 

0842 GMT - Gold may decline to $1,400/oz by end-2020 due to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a stabilization in the global economy, OCBC says. Since the start of 2H, gold and 10-year Treasury yields have shown a tight negative correlation. If 10-year yields rise above 2%, profit-taking and algorithmic trading pressures may push gold back below $ 1,400/oz. The global economy also seems to have stabilized following a year of uncertainty, OCBC says. While physical gold demand from China and India may pick up in 2020 amid stronger currencies, it's unlikely to offer much support on any selloffs, OCBC adds. Gold was last at $1,473.41/oz and 10-year Treasury yield at 1.81%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

 

donc

[crossd]

 

 

5 up in GDX 15 min chart.

lets se what a correction here does

daily looks like .. iii of 3 of 3 of 3 of something in progress (per stubaby's chart) 

 

Palladium is the new bitcoin

https://tme2.nyc3.cd...6169bb7c5fc5f95

 

i know i am a broken record. but you see the substitute for palladium is platinum and its alot cheaper. those catalytic converters will be needed the fossil fuel engine is not going the way of the dodo.  

we are approaching the most bullish time of year for gold. http://www.equityclo...seasonal-chart/

the catalyst is about to appear next week or just before the holidays. 

are you ready?\

dharma

 

i read an estimate that electric vehicles sales in 5 years will overtake fossil fuel vehicles..fwiw

donc

[hhh]

The transmission of the required amount of electrical capacity is going to be a huge challenge if that comes to pass, unless more local generation is implemented. Transmission losses are huge and under-appreciated compared to shipping conventional fuels.

[Russ]

Nice work Russ.  Armstrong's monthly timing model shows the Month of March for the DJIA as a very strong Panic Cycle and Internal Volatility.   So that would seem to match up with your idea about a high for metals in March (inverse to stock market)

 

And then also there was that VIX buyer of April 65 call options expecting a super spike in volatility.

 

 

Panic Cycle

 

The Panic Cycle Models identify potential timing of abrupt, possibly dramatic price movement. A Panic Cycle differs from a turning point or a directional change insofar as it does not necessarily reflect a high or low, nor is it attempting to reflect the beginning of a change in trend.

 

We’ve observed that approximately 70% of the time, a Panic Cycle has been an outside reversal (e.g. price exceeding the previous session high while also penetrating its low), or capitulation, whereas approximately 30% of the time it has been a relatively fast one way move.

 

(Note: the use of the term ‘reversal’ in the phrase ‘outside reversal’ has absolutely no relation to the "Reversals" from the proprietary Reversal System available in Socrates – it simply refers to a dramatic price move in which a market price exceeds the previous session high while also penetrating its low ).

 

 

Volatility (Internal and Overnight)

 

The Volatility Models provides an indication for when a change in the current volatility trend may take place. Volatility is only concerned with percentage movement, rather than the direction or whether it is a high or low. The targets in this model reflect potential turning points, but in volatility terms – thus, the low in volatility might form on the highest bar while the high in volatility could unfold on the lowest bar.

 

Volatility is measured in three primary manners: internal (difference between high/low of trading session), overnight (previous close to open), and general volatility (close to close).

Interesting Tradesurfer, thanks for that.   Here is a promo from one of Armstrong's long term buddies, I have chatted with both of them together after one of their conferences... 

Michael Campbell mike@mikesmoneytalks.ca via gmail.mcsv.net 

Tue, Dec 10, 2:46 PM (2 days ago)

 

 

to me

 

 

 

English

 

 

Spanish

 

   

Translate message

Turn off for: English

 

 

 

In September overnight borrowing rates jumped 500% in less than 4 hours. And nobody’s talking about why. Too bad because it’s a major warning.

but then again - so is the pension strike in France.
and - the civil violence in Hong Kong, Chile, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia and Columbia.
plus  - the fact that Deutsche Bank just sold $50 billion in distressed emerging market debt to Goldman Sachs.
 
,
 
Forgive me for getting right to it but the above is just a foreshadowing of the major trends that will dominate starting in January and going through 2022. The list is a long one - liquidity crisis, pension problems, social unrest, European banking problems and an emerging market debt crisis. 
 
As Martin Armstrong wrote in July, "I have never witnessed such complete disruption to the world economy on a massive scale of this nature.” And it will impact currencies, stocks, interest rates, precious metals and commodity prices.
 
The volatility is going to be profound.  That’s one of the lessons to take from the sharp increase in overnight lending rates on September 16^th when borrowers went from paying 2% to 10% in a matter of hours. But what’s not being said publicly is - much like in 2008 with Lehman Brothers, AIG and Bear Sterns - banks didn’t want to lend to other financial institutions because they didn’t know what exposure borrowers had to Deutsche Bank’s problems.
 
The Federal Reserve was forced to step in and provide an average of $75 billion a day to keep the overnight lending market operational, but it won’t fix the underlying problem of declining confidence and liquidity. And the Fed is still injecting money with no end in sight.
 
Declining confidence and lack of liquidity is the recipe for a “no bid” market, which is what keeps me up at night because it won’t be the last time. (Let that sink in for a moment)
 
We are on the cusp of the next phase of the monetary crisis and the liquidity problem is just one aspect - and it’s not difficult to understand. 
 
Quick question, would you lend your money to the government or a bank if they promised to give you less back in five or ten years? Probably not - and that’s the problem with negative yield bonds. Instead of buying them, individuals and pools of capital are choosing to put their US cash in safety deposit boxes or other safe keeping thereby removing liquidity from the system.  Keep in mind that 70% of all US cash is held outside the US - and that’s creating a big problem.
 
The central banks aren’t talking about it because they don’t want to spook investors, because once confidence erodes you get a situation like the credit crisis in 2008.
 
I appreciate that you’re not reading or hearing about this in the mainstream media - and there is certainly no shortage of opinions, predictions and recommendations. The only way to evaluate and judge whether one approach or model is better than another is the examine the track record.
 
And on that score I don’t know a better one than what we’ve produced at the World Outlook Financial Conference. We unequivocally forecast the record bull market in US stocks since March 2009 and have not wavered. We recommended every dip in quality stocks as a buying opportunity. Our World Outlook Conference Small Cap Portfolio, done in conjunction with Keystone Financial, has never failed to return double digit profits. As I write today, the 2019 recommended portfolio is up 61%. 
 
As we’ve been predicting on MoneyTalks since 2010, the European Union would come apart. Then, as predicted, Brexit went through alongside the rise of other anti-EU parties. And given the current protests in France over the attempt to adjust unaffordable public sector pensions - don’t be surprised if you start hearing rumblings in France about leaving the EU. 
 
Our recognition that the problems in Europe would push hundreds of billions of dollars worth of euros into the US has been key in our recommendation to buy US dollars, stocks and bonds.  Since the 2013 WOFC we’ve recommended putting 30% of your money in US dollar denominated assets and cash. We upped that to 50% in 2014. We first recommended playing the euro to go down when it was at 1.54 to the dollar - it’s now in the 1.10 range - and my bet is that there’s more money to be made on the downside. 
 
The US dollar related recommendations illustrate the approach we take at the World Outlook Financial Conference and on MoneyTalks. You start by getting the big picture right and then devise strategies to take advantage of it.
 
At this year’s conference we’ll talk about when that major, pivotal US dollar trend will reverse. You can’t afford to get this wrong.
 
My Point
 
Maybe we’ve been lucky that every year our specific recommendations have paid for the price of a ticket several times over. Although past performance is not a guarantee of future results, featuring analysts with exceptional track records like Martin Armstrong, Ryan Irvine and Mark Leibovit (who in September, Timers Digest named gold market and stock market Timer of the Year) - puts the odds in our favour.  
 
No Surprise 
 
As you probably guessed, I want you to come to the World Outlook Financial Conference. Why? Because we’re living in a time of historic change and people who don’t understand what’s going on are going to be financial road kill. Of course, many people already are - but conference attendees who followed our past recommendations into the US dollar, US stocks, real estate in Vancouver, Phoenix, Montreal and Victoria, and have bought the World Outlook Small Cap Portfolio have done well.
 
But I also understand that not everyone is interested in their personal finances – and I respect that, but I’ll warn you that whether you’re interested or not - what’s coming starting in January through 2022 will have a dramatic impact on your financial well being.
 
I hope to see you at the Conference.
 
All my best,
 
Mike

PS - The World Outlook Conference is Friday Feb 7^th  and Saturday, Feb. 8^th  at the Westin Bayshore in Vancouver.  For tickets and other details CLICK HERE.

 

Nice work Russ.  Armstrong's monthly timing model shows the Month of March for the DJIA as a very strong Panic Cycle and Internal Volatility.   So that would seem to match up with your idea about a high for metals in March (inverse to stock market)

 

And then also there was that VIX buyer of April 65 call options expecting a super spike in volatility.

 

 

Panic Cycle

 

The Panic Cycle Models identify potential timing of abrupt, possibly dramatic price movement. A Panic Cycle differs from a turning point or a directional change insofar as it does not necessarily reflect a high or low, nor is it attempting to reflect the beginning of a change in trend.

 

We’ve observed that approximately 70% of the time, a Panic Cycle has been an outside reversal (e.g. price exceeding the previous session high while also penetrating its low), or capitulation, whereas approximately 30% of the time it has been a relatively fast one way move.

 

(Note: the use of the term ‘reversal’ in the phrase ‘outside reversal’ has absolutely no relation to the "Reversals" from the proprietary Reversal System available in Socrates – it simply refers to a dramatic price move in which a market price exceeds the previous session high while also penetrating its low ).

 

 

Volatility (Internal and Overnight)

 

The Volatility Models provides an indication for when a change in the current volatility trend may take place. Volatility is only concerned with percentage movement, rather than the direction or whether it is a high or low. The targets in this model reflect potential turning points, but in volatility terms – thus, the low in volatility might form on the highest bar while the high in volatility could unfold on the lowest bar.

 

Volatility is measured in three primary manners: internal (difference between high/low of trading session), overnight (previous close to open), and general volatility (close to close).

Thanks for that.  Here is something from one of Armstrong's long term buddies, who I spoke to together in the past.... 

Michael Campbell mike@mikesmoneytalks.ca via gmail.mcsv.net 

Tue, Dec 10, 2:46 PM (2 days ago)

 

 

to me

 

 

 

English

 

 

Spanish

 

   

Translate message

Turn off for: English

 

 

 

In September overnight borrowing rates jumped 500% in less than 4 hours. And nobody’s talking about why. Too bad because it’s a major warning.

but then again - so is the pension strike in France.
and - the civil violence in Hong Kong, Chile, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia and Columbia.
plus  - the fact that Deutsche Bank just sold $50 billion in distressed emerging market debt to Goldman Sachs.
 
,
 
Forgive me for getting right to it but the above is just a foreshadowing of the major trends that will dominate starting in January and going through 2022. The list is a long one - liquidity crisis, pension problems, social unrest, European banking problems and an emerging market debt crisis. 
 
As Martin Armstrong wrote in July, "I have never witnessed such complete disruption to the world economy on a massive scale of this nature.” And it will impact currencies, stocks, interest rates, precious metals and commodity prices.
 
The volatility is going to be profound.  That’s one of the lessons to take from the sharp increase in overnight lending rates on September 16^th when borrowers went from paying 2% to 10% in a matter of hours. But what’s not being said publicly is - much like in 2008 with Lehman Brothers, AIG and Bear Sterns - banks didn’t want to lend to other financial institutions because they didn’t know what exposure borrowers had to Deutsche Bank’s problems.
 
The Federal Reserve was forced to step in and provide an average of $75 billion a day to keep the overnight lending market operational, but it won’t fix the underlying problem of declining confidence and liquidity. And the Fed is still injecting money with no end in sight.
 
Declining confidence and lack of liquidity is the recipe for a “no bid” market, which is what keeps me up at night because it won’t be the last time. (Let that sink in for a moment)
 
We are on the cusp of the next phase of the monetary crisis and the liquidity problem is just one aspect - and it’s not difficult to understand. 
 
Quick question, would you lend your money to the government or a bank if they promised to give you less back in five or ten years? Probably not - and that’s the problem with negative yield bonds. Instead of buying them, individuals and pools of capital are choosing to put their US cash in safety deposit boxes or other safe keeping thereby removing liquidity from the system.  Keep in mind that 70% of all US cash is held outside the US - and that’s creating a big problem.
 
The central banks aren’t talking about it because they don’t want to spook investors, because once confidence erodes you get a situation like the credit crisis in 2008.
 
I appreciate that you’re not reading or hearing about this in the mainstream media - and there is certainly no shortage of opinions, predictions and recommendations. The only way to evaluate and judge whether one approach or model is better than another is the examine the track record.
 
And on that score I don’t know a better one than what we’ve produced at the World Outlook Financial Conference. We unequivocally forecast the record bull market in US stocks since March 2009 and have not wavered. We recommended every dip in quality stocks as a buying opportunity. Our World Outlook Conference Small Cap Portfolio, done in conjunction with Keystone Financial, has never failed to return double digit profits. As I write today, the 2019 recommended portfolio is up 61%. 
 
As we’ve been predicting on MoneyTalks since 2010, the European Union would come apart. Then, as predicted, Brexit went through alongside the rise of other anti-EU parties. And given the current protests in France over the attempt to adjust unaffordable public sector pensions - don’t be surprised if you start hearing rumblings in France about leaving the EU. 
 
Our recognition that the problems in Europe would push hundreds of billions of dollars worth of euros into the US has been key in our recommendation to buy US dollars, stocks and bonds.  Since the 2013 WOFC we’ve recommended putting 30% of your money in US dollar denominated assets and cash. We upped that to 50% in 2014. We first recommended playing the euro to go down when it was at 1.54 to the dollar - it’s now in the 1.10 range - and my bet is that there’s more money to be made on the downside. 
 
The US dollar related recommendations illustrate the approach we take at the World Outlook Financial Conference and on MoneyTalks. You start by getting the big picture right and then devise strategies to take advantage of it.
 
At this year’s conference we’ll talk about when that major, pivotal US dollar trend will reverse. You can’t afford to get this wrong.
 
My Point
 
Maybe we’ve been lucky that every year our specific recommendations have paid for the price of a ticket several times over. Although past performance is not a guarantee of future results, featuring analysts with exceptional track records like Martin Armstrong, Ryan Irvine and Mark Leibovit (who in September, Timers Digest named gold market and stock market Timer of the Year) - puts the odds in our favour.  
 
No Surprise 
 
As you probably guessed, I want you to come to the World Outlook Financial Conference. Why? Because we’re living in a time of historic change and people who don’t understand what’s going on are going to be financial road kill. Of course, many people already are - but conference attendees who followed our past recommendations into the US dollar, US stocks, real estate in Vancouver, Phoenix, Montreal and Victoria, and have bought the World Outlook Small Cap Portfolio have done well.
 
But I also understand that not everyone is interested in their personal finances – and I respect that, but I’ll warn you that whether you’re interested or not - what’s coming starting in January through 2022 will have a dramatic impact on your financial well being.
 
I hope to see you at the Conference.
 
All my best,
 
Mike

PS - The World Outlook Conference is Friday Feb 7^th  and Saturday, Feb. 8^th  at the Westin Bayshore in Vancouver.  For tickets and other details CLICK HERE.

[K Wave]

Looks like GC hourly 900 FINALLY being reclaimed by bulls this AM...

 

Edited by K Wave, 12 December 2019 - 09:08 AM.

[Russ]

 

While I don't think SILVER has bottomed at 16.50, I though I'll give it a try to make this move an impulse. So here it goes.

Silver cannot go down with gold breaking out, you are going to be wrong.