8 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I did this morning.

It was hard to do, but I got right in minutes.

 

Down on news isn't usually for real.

 

M

[Darris]

Had a wild card order at 3212 since that was just below the last low last week.  The cash pivots for today show the exact bottom at S3 for the ES print at 3207.

Fed mtg minutes may have given time line for Repo draining.  Supposedly 3 possible drains next week unless new offers given to off set. 1st might be on Monday.

[OEXCHAOS]

Nice trading.

[Rich C]

I had a couple of lowball buy orders hit, small positions.  I bought some GLD a few weeks ago, I put a "trailing stop loss %" under it at 1%.

[SemiBizz]

Only to cover the LONG VIX ETF - UVXY - in pre-market - bought after Thursday's EXTREME CLOSE...and before the Iran Deal.

 

From Friday's Forecast:

 

 

 

Let's get to the meat of our forecast... for the past 2 days, we've seen EXTREME CLOSING PLUS TICK READINGS and the market has responded with Sharp pullbacks as well as sharp rallies... tonight's CLOSING PLUS TICK is the MOST EXTREME, along with a very extreme closing price... So this time we are looking for a STRONGER PULLBACK

[blustar]

I expect possible weakness on the open Monday followed by strength into the close.  Range SPX 3227-67 +/-

 

Tuesday and Wednesday are down days in my book, especially Wednesday, then sideways into Friday. Next week's forecast target mid 3210's.

[flyers&divers]

Added to a VXX position.

I usually have a combination position of outright longs, buy-writes and bull call spreads so a couple of weeks ago I started accumulating a small VXX position.

That has cost me but I do not mind. Friday I added to the VXX because I expect a pullback now that Wall Street hit good performance bonus benchmarks and keeping the market up is not the top most priority.

I did not know, of course, that the geopolitical landscape would change. Now it seems that beside a potential pullback there will be intense rotation.

 

My foolish trade of the year was going long the MJ ETF  (via Sept call options) in early May without even minimal study of fundamentals. My own enthusiasm for the future of cannabis, I am not a user,  and the loud hype of the newsletter industry was enough background info for me. Later I found out the reason for the persistent weakness, MJ was loaded with growers and there was so much overproduction that cash prices fell continuously. Because there was no way to get even halfway decent fills on the options I sold equal delta MJ shares short to neutralize the position. To my surprise MJ kept falling further and little by little I was able to wiggle out of the pairs. As the calls became worthless the shorts almost made up for the losses. Never again, I am sticking to trading issues with higher option volumes.

Another, I forgot the symbol, was earlier in the year, I was eyeing something for a breakout and was about to place the order when one minute before the close my girlfriend called, I did place the order while talking to her and after the close I realized it was for the wrong symbol and wrong quantity. Next morning I simply liquidated, at a loss, of course.

 

My best trades were in old fashioned swing trading strongly trending issues or option spreads on them.

 

I Have noticed that if I am in and out of the ES or MES futures a lot I am inefficient and I stopped doing that. I probably have slowing reflexes due to my age. I do better if I leave it alone and spot something from the corner of my eye.

I have a few young friends who I help along and tell them they should trade on one time frame, they can focus more and their life will be simpler.

 

My new thing is trading the very conservative buy-write strategy that others do but with a twist, on relatively low priced issues with very high IV weekly options. Less intense and time consuming then scalping and one sense of the daily swings is not disturbed.

For example the on UNG that settled at 16.38  the one week Jan10 slightly out of the money 16.50 call closed .30 on Friday. On $410 margin with the $30 premium collected that is a huge return per week. That can be rolled up or down every week or undone on crazy up swings. UNG is like a bronco but the return is so high that it can cover many mistakes and one still come out ahead. Have also done this on TEVA and some very liquid low priced semi stocks. 

 

My goal this year is to trade less and start paying attention to the non-equity futures markets because soon or later UNIMAGINABLE moves are coming. I lived through such times in the early 70's but I was too green to take full advantage. 

 

Wish everyone all the very best.

[blustar]

We got that down day but farther down than I was thinking.  Still room to go up into Tuesday to the upper 32600's to low 3270's

[blustar]

The EOD tells me selling tomorrow to 3222/23 then up into Wednesday to near 3280.  THE top is not yet in! Bradley Jan 8.  Down into Friday to near 3218

Edited by blustar, 06 January 2020 - 06:43 PM.