17 replies to this topic

[alexnewbee]

We got above 3300 as I expected by Jan 15 (a day late) now I expect a pull back to 3287 today.  Nasty NEG D's! It looks like a running correction to me and that means higher prices ahead. My blog explains what I'm seeing, but anyway I'm expecting 3321 by early Jan 21 and that should be THE major top off the Dec 24/26, 2018 lows.  We should see a bear market low in early/mid April.

Chances for 3287 are almost 0. We should stay at this level till the rest of the day, next week start selling for a correction of about 7-10% , then in Feb start another rally which will take us to the top by March expiration.

IMHO AGW WOG.

[blustar]

Now I'm looking for a possible SPX cash 3276/77 on a gap down Friday as the 8 TD low looks to go +1 from Jan 6.  A rally into Jan 21 still looks reasonable to as high as 3321/22.  The gap and rally should be taken out. We had a double "intraday at 3308.3 and 3308.4" cash top today. It is still a running correction, but what I call an Irregular Megaphone Pattern or IMP for short. Today's topping pattern looks like distribution ahead of OPEX.

[blustar]

Raised it now to the 3278 area for Friday.  I'll post the IMP on my blog later. I still see somewhere around 3320 by early Jan 21.  

Edited by blustar, 16 January 2020 - 02:19 PM.

[blustar]

Raised target to SPX 3281 on a gap down Friday and around 3274 by Monday following the Gann 8/16/32 TD and Hurst 10/20/40 TD cycles.  This would suggest higher prices at least into the end of January I would think. This thing is relentless.

[slupert]

VIX P/C shows not many short premium.

 

That's Bearish... but sheeze, in a power move at new highs? I'll let Mikey short it...he'll short anything!

i"ll short it. Im totally short now. (JMHO)

[csw2002]

High OEX puts on Wed are due to 500 cars sold by put sellers at strike 1475 due to expire this Friday. While put sellers are not always right, they are high percentage players. Hence looking at raw oex pcr often presents incorrect information.

On Thursday, 15 mins after the open, these OEX put sellers closed their short put positions. Nice profit for holding less than half a day. Again, this transaction would elevate OEX PCR.. Again, this is not necessarily bearish (though probably more bearish than original opening short put transactions). The round trip short put transactions would elevate average OEX PCR. If you simply rely on raw OEX PCR, you would have likely drawn incorrect conclusion. For Friday, after stripping out the reversal of short put transaction (and volume on  contract expiring coming Friday), OEX PCR is neutral rather than bearish.

[da_cheif]

watch the sky

 

 

VIX P/C shows not many short premium.

 

That's Bearish... but sheeze, in a power move at new highs? I'll let Mikey short it...he'll short anything!

i"ll short it. Im totally short now. (JMHO)

 

wheres ur stop.......in case theres a gap up......hope it isnt to big

[blustar]

Here are the Astro cycle positions. Jan 18 top. Jan 23 low. Jan 28 low. Feb 1 top. Looks like we are topping here today. We are around my 3321/22 target could get to pivot 3325 Jan 28 is a major Astro low and Jan 18/20 major top. If we consider a 6 td drop into Jan 28 then today easily could be the top. Gann square resistance on closing basis is 3316/20 I think we are there.