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Turn Risk Windows for Next Week


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 01 February 2020 - 05:11 PM

According to my risk window system, the days with the highest risk of a turn or acceleration of the current trend this coming week are Tuesday the 4th and Friday the 7th of February.  My gut says Monday the 3rd instead of the 4th since I expect the buy-the-dippers to come out Monday in full force if not Sunday, but the system says otherwise.

 

Last week the turn down at the Wednesday intraday high in the DJIA was right in the risk window, but my guess that it would be a turn up from a low was wrong.  LMF correctly pointed out in a response to my post that prices tend to rise into FED days which turned out to be the case.  The risk window system doesn't predict direction, only that a turn should occur or a sharp acceleration of the current trend. I use my cracked crystal ball to try to guess the direction of the turn out of the risk window.  For example this week the obvious guess is to assume the turn will be up from a low on Tuesday, but if the buy-the-dippers drive prices up Monday, that guess will be dead wrong.  I also don't think that I should completely ignore the very real risk for an acceleration of the current down trend given the coronavirus problems.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 01 February 2020 - 05:20 PM.


#2 alexnewbee

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Posted 02 February 2020 - 12:36 PM

According to my risk window system, the days with the highest risk of a turn or acceleration of the current trend this coming week are Tuesday the 4th and Friday the 7th of February.  My gut says Monday the 3rd instead of the 4th since I expect the buy-the-dippers to come out Monday in full force if not Sunday, but the system says otherwise.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Well, if history is a guide, we indeed might rally tomorrow, on 409k, chinese short-selling ban and other BS and top at Trump's speach 4th of Feb.

In any case interesting start of the month.


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