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The British Pound


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 09 February 2020 - 08:12 AM

This week my currency trading system for the British Pound gave a sell signal projecting down to about $1.24.  The sell is largely based on COT data.  The $1.24 target is based on the break of the bottom of a four touch falling triangle in the daily chart.  The sell-off should close a large gap in the daily chart at $1.25.  I am a long term bull on the Pound which I believe put in an 8 year cycle low this past August.  From that low there are five waves up in the daily chart, and now a three wave down correction is forming.  Since I will be putting my money where my mouth is on this one, I am very interested in any other opinions on this currency.  If you have one, particularly if you think I'm wrong, please post. 

 

If I'm right, Britain will be an even better bargain for you Yanks.  The weather's about as warm as the ale, but the natives are also warm and friendly and speak something akin to your language, so pack the brolly and wellies and come visit us while it's on sale. 

 

Also, please talk to the Donald about easing up on the single malt scotch tariffs.  If by some unfortunate circumstance, due to cost or custom, you haven't tried single malt, do so in the Scottish Highlands before you shuffle off this mortal coil.  It will be as close to heaven as some of you sinners will ever get.

 

Regards,

Douglas 



#2 Douglas

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 12:00 PM

You would know that as soon as I publish something negative on the Pound that it would march straight up, but if I'm correct, the up move currently underway is just the test of the bottom of the break of that falling triangle at about $1.3.  The real test of my cracked crystal ball prediction will occur when (if) that line holds and the Pound turns back down.  The saving grace is that the test of my projection won't take long given how fast the Pound is rising. 

 

Regards, 

Douglas



#3 hhh

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 12:19 PM

Laphroaig Quarter Cask!

#4 Douglas

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 12:40 PM

That's the old trade spirit.  Laphroaig is made on the Isle of Islay, Scotland but matured in American oak casks so you're supporting both economies.  Well done!

 

Regards,

Douglas



#5 Douglas

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 08:10 AM

This morning the bottom of the falling Pound daily chart triangle at $1.3 was breached from below, so resistance now becomes support.  Apparently I was wrong about the Pound.  The currency market likes the cabinet reshuffle, so the Pound is pounding the shorts this morning.  I'll have to punt and rethink my strategy.  Oy vey.

 

Regards,

Douglas