The FED and other CB's have effectively kited this market for quite some time. Interest rates are a joke. Look at what happened in the repo market a few months ago when the FED pump wasn't turned on quickly enough and banks were forced to actually go out into the market for overnight money. The rates exploded upward. Europe and Japan have insane negative rates. At some point, who knows when, maybe months, maybe years, people will realize how badly broken the system is and it will freeze up, but you can't trade on this basis because markets can remain irrational much longer than any short can remain solvent. One potential sign that the seventh seal has been broken may be a parabolic up move signalling complete capitulation by the shorts.
I fully expect that the down turns that my system is currently identifying will be very brief and buying opportunities, not places to short. I can't remember the last short position that I took. Until I see signs that the system rot has been correctly diagnosed, I'm just swinging from cash to long crashing the buy-the-dippers' party.
Edited by Douglas, 14 February 2020 - 01:35 AM.