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A 95% IT Sell


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#11 CLK

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 12:09 PM

It's comical how many traders I see posting reference to 1999 and 2007, as they are assuming the secular top is upon us.

This is more like 1995 after we left a 20% drop in 1994.



#12 CLK

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 12:39 PM

1929-1966  Secular bull market  INDU 82 to 1000    36 years

 

1982-2000 Secular bull market  INDU  1000 to 11000   18 years

 

 

36+18 divide by 2 = 28 years   Expect at least until 2032 for this secular bull market at a level of 8000 SPX.



#13 da_cheif

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 12:48 PM

 

You are correct on that daring anyone to short this market is crazy but all I have to say is that in all my years of trading no one can say this is a healthy market.  You can call it a bull market if you want but its not when underneath most stocks are correcting and the only reason it is higher is because of 4 stocks.  That is not a bull market and a watch the sky market, its a stupid market, just like in 1987,1999.  Now if we actually saw some true volatility it could be considered a bull or I prefer healthy market, but until that actually starts for no reason whatsoever except people taking profits we'll continue to live on the edge and the people piling in at the top will once again lose their shirts.  And you wonder why volume continues to go down!    

 

 

What did we just have for the last 2 years?

 

>that in all my years of trading no one can say this is a healthy market<   of course anyone who sez that hasnt made a dime in the last 11 years.....well maybre a dime or 2   loll...675 ono   ALEXA  .....OPEN MARKET HOTLINE....



#14 da_cheif

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 12:57 PM

1929-1966  Secular bull market  INDU 82 to 1000    36 years

 

1982-2000 Secular bull market  INDU  1000 to 11000   18 years

 

 

36+18 divide by 2 = 28 years   Expect at least until 2032 for this secular bull market at a level of 8000 SPX.

THATS A FACT JACK     https://media.giphy....p5Yc0/giphy.gif



#15 12SPX

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 01:26 PM

It's comical how many traders I see posting reference to 1999 and 2007, as they are assuming the secular top is upon us.

This is more like 1995 after we left a 20% drop in 1994.

hmmmmm, I was their and no it isn't.  The internet was a new thing, I remember the day Netscape came out and rocketed way past its offering price and then another and another and so on with everything rising to its peak in 99.  When all of a sudden more stocks were going down then up and only a few stocks were holding the market up until boom!!!  The current market was great all the way to about 3100 but since then have only seen a few stocks carry it the past 200 points.  I'm not saying we'll see a -20% decline and dont really care if we do or not but if it wants to get healthy again we need to see some volatility!  Being an option seller I'm never bull or bear but my experience just tells me when the market is healthy or not and is also being confirmed by expiration cycle movement.  The market is now very stretched and needs some volatility.  



#16 12SPX

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 01:52 PM

Although I guess you could be right though a +5% rally in 2 weeks at this pace will put the market up to gain of over +100% for the year, ya that makes a lot of sense! 



#17 redfoliage2

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 02:30 PM

ST cycle started turning down today .............


Edited by redfoliage2, 13 February 2020 - 02:35 PM.


#18 redfoliage2

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 03:40 PM

When I pull up the $SPX on Stockcharts and use STDDEV(50), I see 71.69.

 

I guess I do not know how to get to 2.

Here is the link to an article about standard deviation.  See how it is calculated and what it tells about the price of a stock or index:

https://school.stock...tion_volatility



#19 tsharp

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 05:16 PM

 

1929-1966  Secular bull market  INDU 82 to 1000    36 years

 

1982-2000 Secular bull market  INDU  1000 to 11000   18 years

 

 

36+18 divide by 2 = 28 years   Expect at least until 2032 for this secular bull market at a level of 8000 SPX.

THATS A FACT JACK     https://media.giphy....p5Yc0/giphy.gif

 

 

OR perhaps even higher...

 

SPX-M-12-27-19-NEXT-DECACE.jpg

 

 

SPX-M-12-26-19.jpg



#20 LMF

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 05:23 PM

The discussion of a healthy or unhealthy market while the Fed still exists is completely absurd......is a full on heroin addict ever healthy.