54 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

Here's a 50 year logarithmic look at New York Composite monthly.

 

It is pretty clear that 200 month MA is pretty important to bull health.

 

With that apparent breakout/fakeout reversal in Feb, it is no time to be complacently long, despite what appears to a panic low on Friday.

 

If we get continuation, and Feb turns out to be first of 3 Black (red in the age of color) Crows, then it would become increasingly likely that this long bull run has ended, and the the NYA is about to essentially fall of a cliff after a long slowing of the angle of ascent while running out of gas, perhaps similar to 1973-74

 

But if we get a powerful reversal off of Friday's low that keeps grinding upwards back above 13K, then there is likely more bull still to come, and we might only be halfway done from the 2009 low.

 

At this point, it "looks" more bearish than bullish to me, but until the MACD gets below zero line, bulls can still save it.

 

Next few months look very pivotal to the longer term pic here. Looks like it is pretty much step on the gas out of Friday's low area and accelerate upside, or rollover and die.

 

Anyway, hopefully some will find this look helpful.

 

[Waver]

Helpful.
Agreed with the whole assessment. And I am trying to have a bullish and bearish POV.

have to be way more bearish than bullish at this point.

Thanks.

[CLK]

From the 1974 low to the 1987 top was about 13 years, 2009 to 2020 was 11 years, really about the window of time for

a cyclical bear market again within a secular bull market, this could hit 30-50% this time though and take a couple 

years to recover.

[K Wave]

That should have weekly, not monthly above. Did not catch it in time to edit it.

[K Wave]

From the 1974 low to the 1987 top was about 13 years, 2009 to 2020 was 11 years, really about the window of time for

a cyclical bear market again within a secular bull market, this could hit 30-50% this time though and take a couple 

years to recover.

1987 drop was just a pullback from very overextended short term levels. Never broke the 200 week MA.

The action today looks completely different, in that we just saw what appears to be a failed breakout attempt from multi-year base...and that with just the initial drop, 200 week MA support very close to going by the wayside.

[CLK]

 

From the 1974 low to the 1987 top was about 13 years, 2009 to 2020 was 11 years, really about the window of time for

a cyclical bear market again within a secular bull market, this could hit 30-50% this time though and take a couple 

years to recover.

1987 drop was just a pullback from very overextended short term levels. Never broke the 200 week MA.

The action today looks completely different, in that we just saw what appears to be a failed breakout attempt from multi-year base...and that with just the initial drop, 200 week MA support very close to going by the wayside.

 

 

 

From the 1974 low to the 1987 top was about 13 years, 2009 to 2020 was 11 years, really about the window of time for

a cyclical bear market again within a secular bull market, this could hit 30-50% this time though and take a couple 

years to recover.

1987 drop was just a pullback from very overextended short term levels. Never broke the 200 week MA.

The action today looks completely different, in that we just saw what appears to be a failed breakout attempt from multi-year base...and that with just the initial drop, 200 week MA support very close to going by the wayside.

 

 

 

Good point. This will be one for the history books then, never happened before. All of CiovacoCapitals's work suggested further upside, no A/D divergence on this, at -20% will be the first in 100 years. I would be looking for another short opportunity here on a big bounce, not investing for the long term.

Edited by CLK, 01 March 2020 - 01:01 PM.

[K Wave]

 

Good point. This will be one for the history books then, never happened before. All of CiovacoCapitals's work suggested further upside, no A/D divergence on this, at -20% will be the first in 100 years. I would be looking for another short opportunity here on a big bounce, not investing for the long term.

 

And as long as it gets stick saved of the area of Friday's lows, that scenario could still very well play out.

Nothing has broken...yet.

 

And if NYA does climb back out over 13K, and Trannies climb out over 11K over the coming weeks, then the bull train could chug along for a quite awhile to come.

 

Another huge week to the downside would probably break the bull though.

 

For 401Ks/IRAs etc, would use area of Friday's lows as the big pivot point, with the possibility that they could be tested or slightly exceeded on some of the indexes over the coming weeks, after most likely a sizable bounce this week.

Or, if we do get a decent bounce, take half off the table, and then if 13K does get reclaimed, put it back on with fairly small opportunity cost.

But if NYA starts living below 200 week, after a breach of pretty substantial support zone around 12K, then history suggests time to go to the sidelines.

Edited by K Wave, 01 March 2020 - 01:19 PM.

[K Wave]

We could get an important clue tonight.....

 

If futures open up despite this pretty awful news of a 42% jump in cases in Italy, that would be a pretty bullish sign.

 

If instead, we get a massive gap down.......................

 

https://www.zerohedg...irus-deaths-new

 

Edit: Looks like it may be down.

 

https://www.zerohedg...at-happens-next

 

Still holding 25K, so might get reversed by actual open.

https://www.ig.com/e...end-wall-street

 

If futures end up opening below 25K, could be problematic...

Edited by K Wave, 01 March 2020 - 01:40 PM.

[12SPX]

That is likely as the ES closed at 3089 but the settlement was at 3051which I thought was a little strange as there usually closer together.

[kinga200]

Here's a 50 year logarithmic look at New York Composite monthly.

 

It is pretty clear that 200 month MA is pretty important to bull health.

 

With that apparent breakout/fakeout reversal in Feb, it is no time to be complacently long, despite what appears to a panic low on Friday.

 

If we get continuation, and Feb turns out to be first of 3 Black (red in the age of color) Crows, then it would become increasingly likely that this long bull run has ended, and the the NYA is about to essentially fall of a cliff after a long slowing of the angle of ascent while running out of gas, perhaps similar to 1973-74

 

But if we get a powerful reversal off of Friday's low that keeps grinding upwards back above 13K, then there is likely more bull still to come, and we might only be halfway done from the 2009 low.

 

At this point, it "looks" more bearish than bullish to me, but until the MACD gets below zero line, bulls can still save it.

 

Next few months look very pivotal to the longer term pic here. Looks like it is pretty much step on the gas out of Friday's low area and accelerate upside, or rollover and die.

 

Anyway, hopefully some will find this look helpful.

 

Thanks K Wave!!  Interesting.