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Gold/Silver Ratio highest in over 5000 years


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#21 K Wave

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Posted 19 May 2020 - 12:40 AM

The purest plays, assuming you are not doing futures, will be SLV, AGQ (2X) USLV (3X) depending on your appetite for volatility...

 

In the Family IRAs, we are 2/3 long AGQ and 1/3 USLV. (USLV already up nearly 50% since last entry smile.png )

 

USLV will be sold when over extended and re-aquired on the selloffs over the coming years.

The 3x funds get brutalized on the corrective waves, but over time, they will far exceed 3x return in a long bull market due to the gearing effect.

 

For instance, TQQQ is up about 40X (was up over 50x) since starting to emerge from the dip in 2011, which is probably about roughly where we are now on Silver in the scheme of things (assuming this is finally the real launch).

TQQQ had multiple 25-40% drops on the way up to those returns (last drop one was 63%, but already now up 140% since then), and I would expect USLV might behave similarly. So if you sell when IT momo starts fading, odds are you will be able to buy back in much cheaper a few months down the road. If you can time just a couple of the corrections anywhere near right, cost of original entry can be drastically reduced to possibly well below Zero (assuming you don't lever up on the share count on the dip).

 

So, IF silver ends up taking out $50 and going far beyond, USLV could see 50-100X gains over time if the bull runs long enough.

 

On AGQ, since it has options, plan is to sell calls on extended up moves, and gradually reduce cost of entry to below Zero over the coming years (again assuming this is finally the real launch)

If it gets ridiculously over extended on a swing, may even sell out for an bit, pocket a few bucks that way. But intent is to generally stay long this one, and not over trade it.

Since we are in this go round at a bit over $20, wont take too many call sales or scalps to make that up, especially if it starts trading over $100 in the not too distant future, where $4 and $5 worth of expired calls or scalps at a go should not be too difficult.

 

Note that neither AGQ nor USLV has even moved back above 900 day MA yet.

 

If we do enter a Silver bull market, which SLV is now strongly hinting at, eventually AGQ and USLV will be far, far above the daily 900s....

 

Below are some reference charts of what "could" happen if Silver launches into a long running bull market here...note the drastic out performance of the 3X fund vs the 2X over time...albeit with some massive volatility.

QLD has more history, so you can see the transition into LT bull a bit better as it moves over the 900 day MA and slowly builds momentum over time.

And remember, this is with about a 5X move on the Qs since 2011 at the recent peak, or the equivalent of silver going to 75-80 from today's levels.

 

QLD (2X Qs)

 

qld.png

 

TQQQ (3X Qs)

 

tqqq.png

 

.


Edited by K Wave, 19 May 2020 - 12:46 AM.

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#22 K Wave

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Posted 19 May 2020 - 01:07 AM

And here are the relative positions of the 3 funds as SLV pokes it head back over the 900.

 

Once SLV clears $17 and USLV clears $100, would likely signal bull is gettin' ready to rumble....

 

Until all 3 are above the 900 with the 200 crossed up over the 900 though, bulls could still stumble...

 

Hoping SLV leaves no doubt over next few weeks...but prepared to have to bail out yet again if we do not get a complete reversal like GDX very soon....

This pretty much needs to be an up crash we are in the middle of right now to get the job done.

 

SLV

 

slv.png

 

AGQ

 

agq.png

 

USLV

 

uslv.png


Edited by K Wave, 19 May 2020 - 01:07 AM.

What A Beautiful Black Sky


#23 AChartist

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Posted 19 May 2020 - 08:48 AM

Thanks I'll try AGQ I haven't run silver cycles yet,

last look gold was a parabolic with a pending drop, this is the way

real parabolics look and just keep right translating and never dropping until they do can be a long time.

Impossible to use cycles on gold now just conventional macd trend line breaks etc tools.Shorter term daily

gold cycles may still be useful to take buy signals but never top signals(probably).


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#24 K Wave

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Posted 19 May 2020 - 08:51 AM

SLV cracks $16....if it can keep it above that level today, will start to look more and more like the launch is real...


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#25 AChartist

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Posted 19 May 2020 - 09:14 AM

Well we'll need a serious silver thread combining traditional and ewave methods.

If bull mkt is correct it should be taking buy signals only for a long time. I can refresh my

RSI model tuned for just silver I used to like it on SPX, I use to like ultimate oscillator alot

for SPX in the 1994-1999 bull mkt for buy signals. Something in 1999 got me real negative on

SPX early I was like the lone wolf in the forest here on that. It was relying on macd and ult osc in

those days but what really made me convinced was %participation.

At some points progressively I believed noting conventional worked in stock mkt and I went to the

cycles.


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#26 AChartist

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Posted 19 May 2020 - 10:41 AM

17 was a big mental number for me, my first silver at $11 was sold at $17.

I guess I'll buy something today if closing above but theoretically I think two closes above is preferred.

Did I mention how much of it I got exactly on post election lowpoints, but had a good bit from higher before,

but not higher in premium price.


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#27 AChartist

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Posted 19 May 2020 - 08:34 PM

You realize tonight at apmex a silver eagle is $27

 

Somehow I knew to do the real thing but still suprised premium goes up directly with spot at this point.


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan