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Armstrong throws in the towel, turns bearish as in depression

Armstrong Depression - Virus

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#1 Russ

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 07:22 PM

https://www.armstron...oyer-of-worlds/

 

Armstrong seems to be waffling at the end of this article, downplaying how serious this virus is even though he is talking depression words in this article now.  In January he said on video that the next target for the Dow was 40K and then 65,000 by 2032.95 and he said Dow would have to go to 19000 (see chart below) for a bear market which he said was a long way away and dismissed then. My own work has shown since December that there would be a big SPX low around April 3 but I also have trends on the NYSE for a big low in 2021 and MA said before the virus crash there would be an earnings slump into 2021.

 

"Anthony Fauci has created a Great Depression and unemployment will jump from the lowest since the 1960s and may retest the Great Depression high of 20%. There was a forecast that unemployment would retest the lows going into 2019 and then rise into the 2023 period where it could be a slingshot up to retest the Great Depression highs. It has always been my job to just report what the computer projects. Some people try to challenge me on a personal level. You cannot fight the message, so attack the messenger. I have said every time that I second guess the models, I am the one who is wrong. This was one such forecast I was uncertain about. I could not see fundamentally how the economy could collapse so fast. But low and behold, fate has given us Anthony Fauci which I believe will have destroyed more businesses and wiped out more jobs than any economic event historically surpassing the Great Depression and war.

 

Unemployment-2023.jpg

  • The US Congress is still debating its relief bill. They have no idea what is unfolding.
  • Illiquidity is exploding and hedge funds puke their guts out all over the street. Even some bond funds in Europe and Sweden, as well as Denmark, have suspended all redemptions.
  • The panic to the US dollar has been massive. This will only undermine emerging market debt. The Fed can try to inject dollars, but this will have no effect since the demand far exceeds the supply.
  • The fear factor the medical industry has created over Covid19 is unbelievable where 13% of Americans think they are infected. There is now little doubt that this fear factor has overwhelmed the markets and the economy. Trump has delegated the response to the States, which may be a mistake. Some states are overreacting and many have started to shut down their economies ordering people to stay home into the week of April 6th. Universities have switched to online and many may have just closed for the year. German chancellor Angela Merkel is in quarantine as in US Senator Rand Paul. A member of the Vice President’s team tested positive but not the Vice President.
  • There still remains the risk that Europe may close its financial markets as they did in World War I. There remains also the risk that they will declare a BANK HOLIDAY and they are still looking at using the crisis to cancel all paper currency.

 

I do not see where Fauci’s recommendations have been warranted. This may be a little more aggressive than the flu, but we are still not talking about it reaching an epidemic. It has already subsided in China and South Korea. My discussions with medical doctors in Italy suggest that nobody has died from this virus alone. They have some precondition and then the complications lead to death when severe. This is not the Black Plague."


Edited by Russ, 22 March 2020 - 07:30 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#2 tradesurfer

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 08:08 PM

I think him throwing in the towel is huge contrary indicator !!!!   He has been talking for AGES about how we are going to slingshot up out of this decline and shoot up to the moon.  Now he is capitulating right near a possible major major final low.

 

Macrovoices podcast on youtube has guests talking about shutting down the exchanges !!

 

almost everyone on traders-talk is talking about Virus all over the places which is the equivalent of the 'crash' word

 

The DJIA should bottom possibly THIS WEEK at 18144  + or - a few hundred points.

 

if you look at the Quarterly DJIA chart , this entire down quarterly bar which ends in 7 trading days, objectively is nothing more than a standard wyckoff retest of the breakout area....

 

plus lets not forget it is still an election year...

 

I can already hear the optimism later this week... Goldman upgrades Boeing says they have enough cash... 2 trillion stimulus bill passed....

 

49689140567_fbfd530717_o.png


Edited by tradesurfer, 22 March 2020 - 08:10 PM.


#3 beta

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 08:10 PM

On the bright side, that broadening megaphone pattern suggests -- from an ewave perspective -- that following the impending ABCDE correction off the 1999 peak, the Dow will continue UP to new highs.   Just need to wait for that corrective "E" wave to complete.  


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#4 Russ

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 09:21 PM

On the bright side, that broadening megaphone pattern suggests -- from an ewave perspective -- that following the impending ABCDE correction off the 1999 peak, the Dow will continue UP to new highs.   Just need to wait for that corrective "E" wave to complete.  

How do you know the lower part of the blue megaphone will not take the dow down to 5000 where the 900 month moving average is sitting?  It already fell over 10,000 points, just another 10-15k down to go.wink.png Until a vaccine is developed the wheels of production are limited. 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#5 Russ

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 09:49 PM

I think him throwing in the towel is huge contrary indicator !!!!   He has been talking for AGES about how we are going to slingshot up out of this decline and shoot up to the moon.  Now he is capitulating right near a possible major major final low.

 

Macrovoices podcast on youtube has guests talking about shutting down the exchanges !!

 

almost everyone on traders-talk is talking about Virus all over the places which is the equivalent of the 'crash' word

 

The DJIA should bottom possibly THIS WEEK at 18144  + or - a few hundred points.

 

if you look at the Quarterly DJIA chart , this entire down quarterly bar which ends in 7 trading days, objectively is nothing more than a standard wyckoff retest of the breakout area....

 

plus lets not forget it is still an election year...

 

I can already hear the optimism later this week... Goldman upgrades Boeing says they have enough cash... 2 trillion stimulus bill passed....

 

49689140567_fbfd530717_o.png

Consider the oscillator at the top of my chart, it shows no divergence yet as it did in 2009 and it is not even as low as it was in late 2018 at this time. The oscillator at the bottom of the chart predicted this sell off last December, it shows a low forming in the first week of April which is the same time frame mentioned by Armstrong's computer. 


Edited by Russ, 22 March 2020 - 09:53 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#6 beta

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 09:50 PM

 

How do you know the lower part of the blue megaphone will not take the dow down to 5000 where the 900 month moving average is sitting?  It already fell over 10,000 points, just another 10-15k down to go.wink.png Until a vaccine is developed the wheels of production are limited.

 

Exactly.  That's what I meant by "waiting for the corrective E wave to complete."   At this rate, might happen sooner than 18 months.


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#7 linrom1

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 10:03 PM

I used to be prolific reader of Armstrong from mid 1990s and his Princeton Economics. I distinctly remember that in one of his writings he referred to the cycle economic peak as in 2020. Somewhere along line he changed that to 2032 and I remember that by noting the changed date, but, the date was so far into the future that I just accepted it and thought nothing of it.



#8 cycletimer

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 10:43 PM

I think him throwing in the towel is huge contrary indicator !!!!   He has been talking for AGES about how we are going to slingshot up out of this decline and shoot up to the moon.  Now he is capitulating right near a possible major major final low.

 

Macrovoices podcast on youtube has guests talking about shutting down the exchanges !!

 

almost everyone on traders-talk is talking about Virus all over the places which is the equivalent of the 'crash' word

 

The DJIA should bottom possibly THIS WEEK at 18144  + or - a few hundred points.

 

if you look at the Quarterly DJIA chart , this entire down quarterly bar which ends in 7 trading days, objectively is nothing more than a standard wyckoff retest of the breakout area....

 

plus lets not forget it is still an election year...

 

I can already hear the optimism later this week... Goldman upgrades Boeing says they have enough cash... 2 trillion stimulus bill passed....

 

49689140567_fbfd530717_o.pngThe outlier will be the unemployment report!  



#9 Russ

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 11:15 PM

I used to be prolific reader of Armstrong from mid 1990s and his Princeton Economics. I distinctly remember that in one of his writings he referred to the cycle economic peak as in 2020. Somewhere along line he changed that to 2032 and I remember that by noting the changed date, but, the date was so far into the future that I just accepted it and thought nothing of it.

I have a booklet from Armstrong dated June 1990 which we were given when we attended his outlook conference in 1990 or 91, on the cover of that 'special report on the Economic Confidence Model' is a chart of the model which of course peaks in 2032.95, he never mentioned 2020 to us that I recall then. So the 2032.95 date has been the biggie for three decades at least, nonetheless I accept he told you 2020 then,  I later attended another conference with him in 1996 (cost was $500)  and again I don't recall him mentioning 2020 to us. It's going to be interesting to see what he says now about 2032.95. Also note that the Market peaked on the bottom of the pi cycle in Jan 2020 and then fell hard as the virus too hold, the model implies that whatever starts on the turn will keep going until the next turn which is 2024.34. Despite some flaws I think Armstrong is one of the smartest people alive, his pi cycle model is profound and proven into the billions to one odds and it just timed the peak of the NYSE to within 1 day as the peak of the cycle was on the Saturday after the Friday market peak.  Check out the big picture view of the ECM dated 1987 here....

 309YR-Empires.jpg


Edited by Russ, 22 March 2020 - 11:22 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#10 cycletimer

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 05:03 PM

 

I used to be prolific reader of Armstrong from mid 1990s and his Princeton Economics. I distinctly remember that in one of his writings he referred to the cycle economic peak as in 2020. Somewhere along line he changed that to 2032 and I remember that by noting the changed date, but, the date was so far into the future that I just accepted it and thought nothing of it.

I have a booklet from Armstrong dated June 1990 which we were given when we attended his outlook conference in 1990 or 91, on the cover of that 'special report on the Economic Confidence Model' is a chart of the model which of course peaks in 2032.95, he never mentioned 2020 to us that I recall then. So the 2032.95 date has been the biggie for three decades at least, nonetheless I accept he told you 2020 then,  I later attended another conference with him in 1996 (cost was $500)  and again I don't recall him mentioning 2020 to us. It's going to be interesting to see what he says now about 2032.95. Also note that the Market peaked on the bottom of the pi cycle in Jan 2020 and then fell hard as the virus too hold, the model implies that whatever starts on the turn will keep going until the next turn which is 2024.34. Despite some flaws I think Armstrong is one of the smartest people alive, his pi cycle model is profound and proven into the billions to one odds and it just timed the peak of the NYSE to within 1 day as the peak of the cycle was on the Saturday after the Friday market peak.  Check out the big picture view of the ECM dated 1987 here....

 309YR-Empires.jpg

 

I agree with your characterization of Armstrong.  I’ve always been impressed by him and his brilliance.