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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 10:35 AM

BEAR ATTACK


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#2 pdx5

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 11:59 AM

Good opportunity to buy SP500 at 30% discount from recent highs.

If the country and economy survive, markets will recover in a year or two.
If a long term depression occurs, it won't matter what your portfolio looks like.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#3 cycletimer

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 12:33 PM

Good opportunity to buy SP500 at 30% discount from recent highs.

If the country and economy survive, markets will recover in a year or two.
If a long term depression occurs, it won't matter what your portfolio looks like.

Those are wise words.  Market is at a historical discount in a very short period of time and looking forward 1-2 years from now, we will look back on this as an extraordinary buying opportunity AND if we do have it worse economically (as in total lockdown for 8-10 weeks), then we'll ALL have more things to worry about than out portfolios.  I am buying in traches and still holding 15% cash at present.  I also purchased some gold bullion 1 oz. bars this AM.  They're scarce but I was able to find a few available.



#4 diogenes227

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 01:05 PM

 

Good opportunity to buy SP500 at 30% discount from recent highs.

If the country and economy survive, markets will recover in a year or two.
If a long term depression occurs, it won't matter what your portfolio looks like.

Those are wise words.  Market is at a historical discount in a very short period of time and looking forward 1-2 years from now, we will look back on this as an extraordinary buying opportunity AND if we do have it worse economically (as in total lockdown for 8-10 weeks), then we'll ALL have more things to worry about than out portfolios.  I am buying in traches and still holding 15% cash at present.  I also purchased some gold bullion 1 oz. bars this AM.  They're scarce but I was able to find a few available.

 

I guess you guys have not taken a look at the Margin Debt post I made. biggrin.png

 

I suspect the bounce, which is well worth playing if you're a trader, is going to last at most about three or four weeks before the bear in the film clip returns to make sure Leo is dead.

 

For the long term you might want to be patient and wait for the red line on the margin-debt chart to at least give a hint it's going to turn up. Probably somewhere around 1800 or 1900 on the SPX and who knows when?.

 

Regardless, there will plenty of time then to take long-term positions for the next bull ride.


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#5 slupert

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 02:07 PM

Good opportunity to buy SP500 at 30% discount from recent highs.

If the country and economy survive, markets will recover in a year or two.
If a long term depression occurs, it won't matter what your portfolio looks like.

only problem is that recent highs it was trading at 25 times forward, this market isn't as cheap as it may seem, 



#6 pdx5

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 03:01 PM

"only problem is that recent highs it was trading at 25 times forward, this market isn't as cheap as it may seem,"

 

Couldn't agree more. So like any stock trade, risk is ubiquitous. No system can see future with accuracy. Like Cycletimer's post above, I am buying in tranches spread over 3 months. If after 10 more weeks the virus spread is not under control,

markets could easily drop another 30%. If opposite happens we should get a tradeable bounce. It is all a gamble as far as I know, but I only gamble with money not needed for a couple of 3 years. 


Edited by pdx5, 23 March 2020 - 03:03 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#7 Ticker

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 03:29 PM

Another ho hum 3 percent down day. It's becoming routine.

#8 pdx5

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 08:07 PM

Another ho hum 3 percent down day. It's becoming routine.

It was getting ready to bounce. Advanced significantly from lows of the day, expecting a deal would be reached in congress. Then the deal did not happen and it dropped another 1.5%. These are strange times when a 3% move is called ho-hum. That used to be a change in 2 or 3 months.


Edited by pdx5, 23 March 2020 - 08:08 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#9 Ticker

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 09:26 PM

Cruisliners may have bottomed. I think oil is an intermediate bottom. I will buy more if we dip tomorrow. I own ZIV and about 30 percent long now.

Edited by Ticker, 23 March 2020 - 09:26 PM.


#10 Ticker

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 09:29 PM

My best trades have been buying long term treasuries this year. I was looking to just preserve capital but they went up so much I had to sell.