30 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

How come NYC is so short on ventilators, all states are so short on Test Kits, Masks and Protection equipment?

Ask and ye shall receive.

 

From 2015 New York Sate Report.

https://www.health.n..._guidelines.pdf

 

Some good background info on how New York arrived at where it is now.

Start reading at page 20.

 

Page 27

Currently, New York State has 7,241 ventilators available in acute care facilities, of which approximately 2% are restricted for neonatal patients only; 8% are suitable for pediatric patients only; 50% could support either an adult or pediatric patient (“dual-use” ventilators); and nearly 41% are for adult patients only. In addition, 1,750 ventilators are stockpiled, which can be used for pediatric or adult patients, bringing the total number of ventilators available to 8,991

 

Page 31

New York State has stockpiled 1,750 ventilators to help reduce ventilator need in the face of the moderate scenario; however, there are no current plans to buy enough ventilators for the most severe model. The State’s current approach to stockpiling a limited number of ventilators balances the need to prepare for a potential pandemic against the need to maintain adequate funding for current and ongoing health care expenses. Furthermore, severe staffing shortages are anticipated, and purchasing additional ventilators beyond a threshold will not save additional lives, because there will not be a sufficient number of trained staff to operate them.

[CLK]

If they are reserving tests for those with very severe symptoms, the numbers don't look good, and death rates are 

also climbing now after a 1 day pause.

[CLK]

China outbreak started in Dec, they just leveled off a week or so ago, 3 months, we have at least 2 months to go then.

[K Wave]

China outbreak started in Dec, they just leveled off a week or so ago, 3 months, we have at least 2 months to go then.

China new cases started dropping Feb 15.

 

That will be 6 weeks coming up in a few days.

 

Wuhan Lockdown began Jan 23, so took a little over 3 weeks to get things to ease off.

I have been telling folks I know to expect worst in USA to be over by April 6-7 time frame, perhaps sooner in southern climates.

 

We'll see how close I come.

Edited by K Wave, 25 March 2020 - 10:13 PM.

[claire]

I don't know where you are getting the data that we've tested more people in eight days than Korea. We don't know how many have been tested and the only information about that is from Trump -- not the numbers but that it's eightfold that of Korea.

Also, what he failed to mention is that we have six times the population of Korea and that Korea did massive testing months ago at the rate of 20,000 tests/week when it was possible to mitigate the spread, and it was effective.

Further, is is false that anyone who needs to be tested can have it done now. Doctors and nurses with symptoms can't be tested yet since there aren't enough tests available.  The only people being tested are those who need hospitalization. Most were sent home for self-care without being tested. Some have stood on lines for seven hours in the rain in NYC waiting and hoping to be tested with serious symptoms and then sent home.

And, I wouldn't be so optimistic that it will be leveling here because it did after three months in China. They had massive lockdowns which reduced the spread. Much of America has done virtually nothing.

This is an ongoing massive blunder and could hardly be handled more poorly in this, the wealthiest nation, managing this crisis far worse than anywhere else while we had a two-month head start to take action to protect this nation and clear information of the actions taken elsewhere that were effective. 

 

[K Wave]

Looks like possibly some good news (as would be pretty much expected) on the antibody front.

 

https://www.the-scie...ars-cov-2-67281

Monkeys Develop Protective Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2

Now, a study in monkeys provides some clues. Three rhesus macaques did not develop a second infection after recovering from a first exposure to the coronavirus and being reexposed to SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that primates are capable of developing at least some short-term immunity to the pathogen.

 

To the authors, the results indicate that reports of some COVID-19 survivors being “re-infected” a second time can be explained by issues with testing rather than a failure to develop immunity.

 

This is a really critical preliminary study,” says Lisa Gralinski, a virologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill who wasn’t involved in the study. Although many questions remain as to how the human immune system responds to the virus, “it’s the start of an answer that’s going to be really important to all of us.”

[K Wave]

Decent article addressing how South Korea did it versus our CDC/FDA bureaucracy.

 

https://www.reuters....s-idUSKBN2153BW

 

Hopefully we will learn from this experience.

[K Wave]

This is the main charts I will be watching over the coming 10-15 days or so.

 

Once this chart starts to have another plateau, market likely to start getting some legs...likely to be volatile and choppy until then...

 

 

https://www.worldome...newly-recovered

Edited by K Wave, 25 March 2020 - 11:12 PM.

[risktaker]

https://www.google.c...n-two-patients/
They are picking people to use ventilators at NYC hospitals because the Federal government is rationing sharing of their stockpile of 20,000 ventilators.

[CLK]

Where are the drive through sites they were telling us about, and do you need to have severe symptoms to

go through this site? The way they talked is if you had symptoms you could get the test, now it seems 

unclear if they will even give you the test.

What if you are mildly infected and you go to the doctor or hospital to test and get infected worse from other patients that have already gone there? These drive through sites would eliminate most of that risk, but at this point I don't even know if they have one going yet, and maybe they don't have enough resources to run them throughout the whole country, only in places like New York.