Member
Posted 08 April 2020 - 04:06 PM
I think most understand genesis of GFC and dot.com bust. But do we really know what caused this flash crash? There is COVID-19? But did it cause the initial plunge? If you view, as some do, that we had experienced an ABC type of decline especially in the DOW, I can accept the explanation that COVID-19 panic was responsible for the C-leg, but not the initial decline in Leg-A.
Then what caused it?
Member
Posted 08 April 2020 - 04:08 PM
Edited by linrom1, 08 April 2020 - 04:08 PM.
Member
Posted 08 April 2020 - 05:23 PM
Member
Posted 08 April 2020 - 07:39 PM
Decline was exacerbated by the fact that we were trading at 25 times forward to start with.
Member
Posted 08 April 2020 - 08:00 PM
Initial leg A was just ripeness. I was was bearish as hell as the top, for a whole bunch of reasons. Breadth, valuation, momo losing steam...and throw in the kitchen sink too.
Covid caused us to dramatically overshoot. We are now about where I thought decline would get to without Covid panic.
We could get another dip before we go higher, but do not think we will be seeing the panic low anytime soon.
Better news and Trillions will likely prevent that.
SOX 1640 and NDX 8200 look to be key longer term pivots.
If we do stall out at this first attempt to reclaim these levels, then SOX 1550, Dow 22K, SPX 2600 should be support now...
Once we break above these levels, I think SOX and NDX going to test the highs. Dow SPX may only make it to 200 day MA.
After that, would have to see how decline unfolds, and where it finds support.
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 08 April 2020 - 08:47 PM
Decline was exacerbated by the fact that we were trading at 25 times forward to start with.
I agree. Market was overvalued and looking for an excuse to sell. covid-19 was simply the catalyst.
