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Mighty Beared Up


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 03:25 PM

So many folks think they've got a retest all figured out...

 

http://schrts.co/cgvGvvnd


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#2 gannman

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 03:59 PM

well i think they are wrong


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#3 Darris

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 04:03 PM

I counted 7 ES moderate sized swings for the full session today for 275 points.  That was persistence to get an up day,    UP(+12,-65,+52,-25,+47,-26,+47)+33



#4 Dex

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 04:18 PM

We're coming up on 2 months since the lows.

 

It will happen in late june or early july.


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#5 robo

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 07:10 PM

So many folks think they've got a retest all figured out...

 

http://schrts.co/cgvGvvnd

 If we are now in a bear market it's my opinion a retest is possible.  If we are in a bull market..... we probably hit new highs. Now that is based entirely on the data on the monthly chart below and nothing else.

 

For the record: I do not use this data for trading. 

My chart below indicates the last time we had the ratio like you are pointing out the market moved higher during a Bull Market, but moved much lower in a Bear Market before it finally bottomed in 2009.

 

 

Since I'm trend trading I don't really care or need to guess. However, lots of folks calling for new highs too. Either way I agree with you that this a data point worth tracking.  Please note the data in the red boxes.....

 

https://stockcharts....033&a=751814845

 

Today I BTFD and sold the rip....  

 

Flat again.

 

Under the 13 EMA and I trade like we are in a Bear Market. 

 

https://stockcharts....609&a=748833208

 

Good Trading! 

 

https://stockcharts....659&a=735946766


Edited by robo, 14 May 2020 - 07:18 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#6 dowdeva

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 07:39 PM

Well, sometimes it does get a little lower first....

 

Sentient Trader just had a low last week in his phasing, and has a bigger low in late May, or in June, from an alternate phasing.  

 

The big one, the really big 4.5 year low is due in late August/September.



#7 robo

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 07:45 PM

Well, sometimes it does get a little lower first....

 

Sentient Trader just had a low last week in his phasing, and has a bigger low in late May, or in June, from an alternate phasing.  

 

The big one, the really big 4.5 year low is due in late August/September.

 If you looked at my chart it clearly indicates that as a possible outcome. Each HLC bar is a month, but I don't guess when or why since I'm a trend trader. The market does what it does based on the news and the herd (buyers/sellers).  I just trade the trend and don't really care what or why is causing the trend.

 

Good Trading to you and your call is very possible.  The 2009 bottom produced a pattern like you are pointing out. Crazy times ahead, and we shall see how it all plays out. This has been the best VST trading in my lifetime and I'm almost 70....

 

Take Care! 


Edited by robo, 14 May 2020 - 07:49 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#8 tradesurfer

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 07:49 PM

the plunge today felt living diving into one of those shallow swimming pools, bumping your head on the bottom and then diving back up for air....  and then when your head above water for air you realize there is a sheet of ice now directly above you



#9 robo

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 07:54 PM

the plunge today felt living diving into one of those shallow swimming pools, bumping your head on the bottom and then diving back up for air....  and then when your head above water for air you realize there is a sheet of ice now directly above you

LOL....  I was flat early on and BTFD....  I was trading TEX and I'm flat again.....  I'm not going to hold over night a long position if we are trending down under the 13 EMA.  And position trading with a short position is what you pointed out for today about diving into a shallow swimming pool.  Next week could be big trouble....  I will decide if I want to hold a SDS position next week. 

 

https://stockcharts....352&a=753629167


Edited by robo, 14 May 2020 - 08:02 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#10 CLK

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 08:11 PM

I bought some more puts today for a long term hedge. NYSI has turned down, no telling what price will do,

but decided more puts was the best strategy, not selling out of longs. I think we are in for a long haul back to 3400,

maybe another 3-6 months.

 

 

http://schrts.co/YvtspVwR