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the sox - again


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#1 gannman

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 04:06 PM

the sox bottomed at 1236 on mar 18 and topped on apr 29 at 1802

 

for a total of 566 points pretty close to 10 x 55 imo

 

it looks like we have done an abc pullback which i think is done

 

which bottomed at about 1650 

 

if we  are entering a wave iii of this sequence, and i think we are

 

we could easily do 10 x 89 or 890 points in this wave iii

 

taking us up to about the 2500 to 2600 level

 

i could be wrong i dont know its just my best guess here 

 

fwiw 

 

and thanks to darris i bought back in to this sector today when i saw the 200 dma was going

 

to hold. thank you  sir for your thoughts


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#2 risktaker

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 04:39 PM

I agree with most of what you say. Perhaps iii will begin after most stocks test the March lows.

#3 Darris

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 06:20 PM

Boy did this morning shake my confidence.  I had read Wednesday night somewhere that Berkshire had sold his holdings in a big bank, and then this morning I saw Helene Meiser make a tweet about WFC going down every day for seemingly weeks on end, then sometime after 10am I noticed the NYSE TRIN below 0.50, and started looking around.  Immediately saw all the massive volume in the major bank issues.  Ran a quick SPX components download and there it was again with overall positive volume.  SPX and NYSE positive volume has/had been horrible for several days, so I had been keeping a close eye on it.  I would like for the ES expiry tomorrow to close above 2869 to show a continuation green bar above April.  The expiration max upside targets are the two recent highs of 2947 (printed just this week) and 2965 on Microsoft earnings several weeks ago.  Probably a stretch for tomorrow now, but I did not expect a 94 point ES rally today either.



#4 gannman

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 07:22 PM

you know what i am thinking here , what is the last thing people expect 

 

that would be a massive rally to the upside, because that cant happen

 

things are just to horrible. but if we take out these previous highs if the

 

sp blows thru its 200dma at 3000 we are going to fly imho we will see 


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#5 gannman

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 07:27 PM

one last thing look at what klac did today they had come out with a good report about

 

a week ago . that stock is heading higher


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#6 Darris

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 08:17 PM

When looking at the weekly SPX for a couple of years when all the big rapid drops started, in present time now you can certainly make your case at SPX 2950.  Plenty of historical reference at the value.  The 50 week MA and EMA approximate the 200 day MA and EMA.  We have been moving around 2800 for 5 weeks now, so good basing for the next attempt.  The comment about expectations is a good one since the real data on money flows/positioning is supposedly very bullish.  Money market cash has exploded higher, redemptions in ETFs and Mutual Funds have set records, and as Mark has shown, Inverse ETF share accumulation has set records as well.  Worth a shot to keep looking up because there is still a ton of managers that will auto buy on the close above the 200 day at the end of any week.  AAII sentiment and the COT report positioning reflect additional bullish outcome.J1gpiN.jpg



#7 K Wave

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Posted 15 May 2020 - 08:47 AM

It's likely all about what happens after this opening drop now.

 

If bulls reclaim 220 again and hold it, then more up could still be in the cards.

 

But if it stays under 220 and accelerates down the rest of the day, then bears may finally have the ball for more than a few hours....

 

QQQ just backtesed 1 min 900 from underneath ...so now we see...


Edited by K Wave, 15 May 2020 - 08:47 AM.

What A Beautiful Black Sky


#8 K Wave

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Posted 15 May 2020 - 08:53 AM

Next 30 min or so may tell the story of the next swing...


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#9 gismeu

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Posted 15 May 2020 - 10:27 AM

Hello gannman,

 

great call on Silver!

 

The SLV daily cycle jumped an octave higher, the weekly cycle will top in around one or two weeks, target is now around $15.95.

Then we will see if the weekly jumps an octave higher as well. If so, then your forecast of Silver being in a wave 3 up should be correct.

 

gis


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#10 SemiBizz

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Posted 15 May 2020 - 10:40 AM

US CUTS HUAWEI OFF FROM CHIPS...

 

https://www.reuters....s-idUSKBN22R1KC


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