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#1 andr99

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Posted 22 May 2020 - 03:29 AM

my region is covid free now. yesterday zero new cases and lock down over. all the people with masks in public though and keeping safety distance. Lombardy still having problems, but there too new cases decreasing   


Edited by andr99, 22 May 2020 - 03:30 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N.....though partly langbardic


#2 OEXCHAOS

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    Mark S. Young

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Posted 22 May 2020 - 07:00 AM

a) I'm really glad for you. Get out there. Live life. B) I was looking at your numbers and with the best IFR I've got, it's looking like you've got more covid deaths than the math suggests is likely. Do you guys still have unresolved issues with over-reporting deaths from covid? c) If not, then congratulations on achieving herd immunity!

https://www.worldome.../country/italy/


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#3 andr99

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Posted 22 May 2020 - 07:10 AM

thank you.......to tell the truth the number of deaths was understimated because there are people who died at home without being tested. In this region he have made a number of tests that is the highest worldwide on percentage of population, but even so it was not possible to test everyone. And with an estimated total 10% of infected population, because many were asympthomatics, also herd immunity has not been reached. So why are we covid free now ? Because masks and safety distance have brought the R factor below 1, lately to 0.2 and with such condition the infection is not feeded and it dies. Anyway we will have to wear masks for months to come probably, because it's not over. But we have found the way to control it.      


Edited by andr99, 22 May 2020 - 07:11 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N.....though partly langbardic


#4 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 22 May 2020 - 11:30 AM

If the IFR for you guys is 0.1%, as it's looking like it is elsewhere, and your deaths are accurately reported as due to covid 19, then something like 58% of you guys have been infected. It is possible (and many suspect this) that you did get a nasty early infection in your hospital/healthcare system, which may have dramatically increased the infection of sick folks who are most at risk of dying. This would make your IFR much higher, and leave you farther away from herd immunity. Without herd immunity (whatever that actually turns out to be, and many scientists think it could be much lower than the 60% bandied about), though, you guys are likely to have another round.

But now it's a bit of a mystery.

 

M


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