2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, the days next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current short term trend are Monday the 8th and Wednesday the 10th of June.  If the downward movement which started Friday morning in the hourly DJIA continues in the Sunday and Monday morning after hours trading, I assume the risk window this coming Monday will tag a low of some sort in the DJIA.  

 

The risk window last Monday the 1st looked really good on paper but turned out to be a complete dud.  The risk window Thursday seemed to be identifying a top, but not so given the Friday blast off during that risk window which may yet prove to be a top depending on the action this coming Monday the 8th.  All in all a pretty lousy performance this past week by the risk summation system.

 

The DJIA finally broke through its 200 SMA Friday which probably added fuel to the rally fire and pretty much turned any remaining short bears into fur coats just in time for summer.   

 

Regards,

Douglas

[robo]

The trend remains up, and my trading system remains long,  but the risk/reward data I track is too.... I always enjoy reading over your market thoughts.

 

https://stockcharts....291&a=762176825

 

https://stockcharts....680&a=763515646

 

 

 

SentimenTrader

 

@sentimentrader

·

10h

 

This is stunning. At the peak of speculative fervor in February, small traders bought to open 7.5 million call contracts. This week, they bought 12.1 million. Watch what people do, not what they say. They're full-bore bullish, on steroids.

 

https://twitter.com/...256793445859328

Edited by robo, 06 June 2020 - 06:39 PM.

[Douglas]

robo, my risk summation system appears to be saying that any fireworks this coming week should happen in the front half of the week.  I didn't mention it in my post, but Monday the 8th and Wednesday the 10th are opposite extremes in my system.  Both types in the past have experienced higher than average market index movements.  Monday's flavour favours lows more than highs and Wednesday's highs more than lows, but given the nose bleed index levels, acceleration events also can't be ruled out.  

 

The bond market performance last week was also fascinating.  The FED, who's buying every bond with a pulse, even junk, to bring back to life the fatally flawed market, "let" interest rates rise fairly sharply.  They now appear to be trying to temper the hyperbolic monster stock rally they created.  Hopefully their luck controlling their monster will be more successful than that other famous reanimator of the dead, Doctor Frankenstein.  Is the printing press mightier than the lightning that raised Lon Chaney?   

 

Regards,

Douglas