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Risk Windows for Week of 22nd of June


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 22 June 2020 - 05:45 AM

The risk window picture for this coming week is very muddled like last week.  Taking into account the general system's state of confusion, the days this week which appear to have the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are today, Monday the 22nd which is probably just an extension in the turn up which started during last Friday's risk window, Tuesday the 23rd and Wednesday the 24th and Friday the 26th, basically the whole cotton pickin' week.  I did warn you that my risk system is a mess this week.  Maybe it's just going to swing hard all week as it tries to find it's footing.

 

Last week Monday the 15th's risk window tagged the low for the week. The futures action this morning appears to be confirming a turn up during last Friday's risk window at about 2 pm in the cash market.  The Wednesday risk window last week appears to have been a dud.

 

There are some fairly reliable long cycle turns beginning in the middle of this week stretching into next week which hopefully will finally clarify if this new bull market which began on March 24th is the real deal.  With any luck these large hard cycle turns will also straighten out my poor risk window system which has been tied in knots these last couple of weeks.

 

Soapbox:  The youth on this side of the pond appear to have decided that it's time to get back to normal and are widely ignoring safe distancing and any mask wearing in crowds.   From what I see on the tube, it's similar in a lot of the states on your side of the water too.  I'm no epidemiologist, but unless we're really lucky it would seem that this sort of behaviour should cause quite a spike in bug cases here and there.  The kids clearly are working the just-throw-granny-off-the-train pandemic strategy, whether out of bravado, ignorance or malice I have no idea.  The Good Book says the meek shall inherit the earth, not the spoilt youth.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 pdx5

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Posted 22 June 2020 - 04:12 PM

As young people gather, they are passing virus around, and building immunity. Herd immunity is a good thing. That is how our bodies fight all those viruses which visit us every year. By building anti-bodies and T-cells to kill the virus. Shutting yourself in a house stops you from building immunity. They discovered than in NY. The governor of NY was shocked people who were shut inside their house had 2:1 hospitalizations over free roamers.


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