Best opportunity in 5 years to go long. In 3 years, 30-50% profit without any effort.
Fear of covid-19 is causing panic right now, but look behind the curtain and even with the country opening up,
only 3% of the 3243 counties in the country are experiencing surge of infections. Like I keep saying, Asymptomatic infections are actually a good thing. The death rate is dropping continuously and is lower than all other major countries.
That is all fundamental, news-based analysis. And I get it, this is a news-driven market supposedly. But when it comes to technicals, a lot of my big picture, context charts are telling a different story.
This view of the Nasdaq advance/decline line is not encouraging. To me, it looks like it's setting up similar to late January. Bounce for a little while and then what?
This inverse look at the CPCE 5-day moving average has a bit of an ominous pattern at the moment:
The NYMO is at a place where it could very well bounce and head back up to the Bollinger band mid-line. What happens after that? The MACD is not encouraging, but who knows?:
Despite all of that, I will trade what is in front of me. I am anticipating a bounce early next week—somewhere in the vicinity of the SPX 50 sma—and will get long to see where it wants to go. But I would not be surprised if it fizzles out and we head lower.
Edited by humbled, 27 June 2020 - 06:18 PM.