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NYC and Herd Immunity?


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 02:56 PM

So, a few weeks ago, protesters were stacked on top of each other like cordwood in NYC 3 and 4 weeks ago. You'd think that by now, NYC would see a spike.

No spike. No increased hospitalizations. No increased deaths. All in a serious down trend. Now, we know that NYC got hit hard, and harder than almost anyplace else in the US. It sure looks to me like they have herd immunity, or something very like it.

https://www1.nyc.gov...Ye7BgI#download

 


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#2 gannman

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 03:00 PM

could be lets hope we live just outside the city


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#3 andr99

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 03:02 PM

So, a few weeks ago, protesters were stacked on top of each other like cordwood in NYC 3 and 4 weeks ago. You'd think that by now, NYC would see a spike.

No spike. No increased hospitalizations. No increased deaths. All in a serious down trend. Now, we know that NYC got hit hard, and harder than almost anyplace else in the US. It sure looks to me like they have herd immunity, or something very like it.

https://www1.nyc.gov...Ye7BgI#download

 

 

 

what do your IT indicators tell you about market's direction, may I ask you ? I think July will be strongly up 


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#4 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 03:13 PM

 

So, a few weeks ago, protesters were stacked on top of each other like cordwood in NYC 3 and 4 weeks ago. You'd think that by now, NYC would see a spike.

No spike. No increased hospitalizations. No increased deaths. All in a serious down trend. Now, we know that NYC got hit hard, and harder than almost anyplace else in the US. It sure looks to me like they have herd immunity, or something very like it.

https://www1.nyc.gov...Ye7BgI#download

 

 

 

what do your IT indicators tell you about market's direction, may I ask you ? I think July will be strongly up 

 

I've got a lot of IT stuff negative. The thing is, AAII is all Beared up, but the VIX and relative VIX are high. Rates are low. This dip will almost assuredly be bought again. The bots are manufacturing synthetic money market funds out of the stock market using options and futures.

 

Mark


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#5 andr99

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 03:19 PM

 

 

So, a few weeks ago, protesters were stacked on top of each other like cordwood in NYC 3 and 4 weeks ago. You'd think that by now, NYC would see a spike.

No spike. No increased hospitalizations. No increased deaths. All in a serious down trend. Now, we know that NYC got hit hard, and harder than almost anyplace else in the US. It sure looks to me like they have herd immunity, or something very like it.

https://www1.nyc.gov...Ye7BgI#download

 

 

 

what do your IT indicators tell you about market's direction, may I ask you ? I think July will be strongly up 

 

I've got a lot of IT stuff negative. The thing is, AAII is all Beared up, but the VIX and relative VIX are high. Rates are low. This dip will almost assuredly be bought again. The bots are manufacturing synthetic money market funds out of the stock market using options and futures.

 

Mark

 

 

sorry Mark, what does it mean to you IT ? I' m asking because I' m a position trader and maybe my IT time frame is longer than yours......for what I'm seeing I think the whole July should be up and bring the sp index to 3400.....it would be interesting to me to know your point of view as you often have got a good perspective


Edited by andr99, 26 June 2020 - 03:19 PM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N.....though partly langbardic


#6 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 03:22 PM

 

 

 

So, a few weeks ago, protesters were stacked on top of each other like cordwood in NYC 3 and 4 weeks ago. You'd think that by now, NYC would see a spike.

No spike. No increased hospitalizations. No increased deaths. All in a serious down trend. Now, we know that NYC got hit hard, and harder than almost anyplace else in the US. It sure looks to me like they have herd immunity, or something very like it.

https://www1.nyc.gov...Ye7BgI#download

 

 

 

what do your IT indicators tell you about market's direction, may I ask you ? I think July will be strongly up 

 

I've got a lot of IT stuff negative. The thing is, AAII is all Beared up, but the VIX and relative VIX are high. Rates are low. This dip will almost assuredly be bought again. The bots are manufacturing synthetic money market funds out of the stock market using options and futures.

 

Mark

 

 

sorry Mark, what does it mean to you IT ? I' m asking because I' m a position trader and maybe my IT time frame is longer than yours......for what I'm seeing I think the whole July should be up and bring the sp index to 3400.....it would be interesting to me to know your point of view as you often have got a good perspective

 

I'm a Bull, despite some negative indicators. I'll be buying this dip. I have no idea when the Bull stops, but it's not likely with twice as many AAII Bears as Bulls!

 

M


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#7 risktaker

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 04:27 PM

San Francisco had a large turnout for its protest.


Yet it is the only county near me with no spike.

Edited by risktaker, 26 June 2020 - 04:29 PM.


#8 humbled

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 05:41 PM

So, a few weeks ago, protesters were stacked on top of each other like cordwood in NYC 3 and 4 weeks ago. You'd think that by now, NYC would see a spike.

No spike. No increased hospitalizations. No increased deaths. All in a serious down trend. Now, we know that NYC got hit hard, and harder than almost anyplace else in the US. It sure looks to me like they have herd immunity, or something very like it.

https://www1.nyc.gov...Ye7BgI#download

 

I hear you on that. And as I said yesterday, I am really ignorant, especially about this COVID stuff. Not that I don't read a lot and research, but that does not make me an expert. I just have more information and virtually no experience or expertise.

 

That said, here is my two cents. These protests are all outdoors. It is much harder to get the load of virus supposedly needed to trigger the sickness outdoors. And if you're wearing a mask, you really don't touch your face as much. Not that you can't catch this thing outdoors, just lower likelihood. Crowded indoor spaces where people spend a couple hours are the problem spots. Restaurants, bars, churches (indoor places where people are singing is the worst situation).


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Donít focus on the money. Focus on executing trades well.

If you are getting in and out of trades rationally, the money will take care of itself.

--from 40 Bits of Trading Wisdom (posted by Capitulation years ago on FF)

#9 pdx5

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Posted 27 June 2020 - 07:58 AM

Best opportunity in 5 years to go long. In 3 years, 30-50% profit without any effort.

Fear of covid-19 is causing panic right now, but look behind the curtain and even with the country opening up,

only 3% of the 3243 counties in the country are experiencing surge of infections. Like I keep saying, Asymptomatic infections are actually a good thing. The death rate is dropping continuously and is lower than all other major countries.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#10 humbled

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Posted 27 June 2020 - 06:17 PM

Best opportunity in 5 years to go long. In 3 years, 30-50% profit without any effort.

Fear of covid-19 is causing panic right now, but look behind the curtain and even with the country opening up,

only 3% of the 3243 counties in the country are experiencing surge of infections. Like I keep saying, Asymptomatic infections are actually a good thing. The death rate is dropping continuously and is lower than all other major countries.

That is all fundamental, news-based analysis. And I get it, this is a news-driven market supposedly. But when it comes to technicals, a lot of my big picture, context charts are telling a different story.

 

This view of the Nasdaq advance/decline line is not encouraging. To me, it looks like it's setting up similar to late January. Bounce for a little while and then what?

 

1.jpg

 

This inverse look at the CPCE 5-day moving average has a bit of an ominous pattern at the moment:

 

2.jpg

 

The NYMO is at a place where it could very well bounce and head back up to the Bollinger band mid-line. What happens after that? The MACD is not encouraging, but who knows?:

 

3.jpg

 

Despite all of that, I will trade what is in front of me. I am anticipating a bounce early next week—somewhere in the vicinity of the SPX 50 sma—and will get long to see where it wants to go. But I would not be surprised if it fizzles out and we head lower.


Edited by humbled, 27 June 2020 - 06:18 PM.

BIT #10:

Donít focus on the money. Focus on executing trades well.

If you are getting in and out of trades rationally, the money will take care of itself.

--from 40 Bits of Trading Wisdom (posted by Capitulation years ago on FF)