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You might call it a bull market


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#1 steadyquest

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 10:13 PM

but it sure smells like what a bull leaves trailing behind it.  Would a true bull market be shamed by a shiny metal?  If it is a bull market why does it remain trapped in a 2 year downtrend channel, and so what really differentiates it from a bear market?

 

Down-Trend.png

 

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NDX-fiat.png

 

Indu.png

 

Indu-daily.png

 

SPX-daily.png

 

TLT-Fiat.png



#2 pdx5

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Posted 27 June 2020 - 07:44 AM

Best opportunity in 5 years to go long. In 3 years, 30-50% profit without any effort.

Fear of covid-19 is causing panic right now, but look behind the curtain and even with the country opening up,

only 3% of the 3243 counties in the country are experiencing surge of infections. Like I keep saying, Asymptomatic infections are actually a good thing. The death rate is dropping continuously and is lower than all other major countries.


Edited by pdx5, 27 June 2020 - 07:47 AM.

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#3 steadyquest

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Posted 27 June 2020 - 11:51 AM

Hello pdx5 - I don't give much regard to news noise - there is always some explanation isn't there?

  

This chart now contains Friday's candle (USD end-of-day comes in late after the bell):

 

TLT-Fiat2.png

 

 

This chart looks potentially ominous depending on whether the 1st strike is counted as a breach:

 

NDX-fiat2.png

 

 

It could be very bullish for the market to punch back through the triple resistance above Friday's close.  Otherwise - watch the ground?

 

Indu-daily2.png 



#4 Rich C

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Posted 27 June 2020 - 12:40 PM

i read an article at CNBC with contribution from JPM, from March 14, they kept saying there had been bear markets outside the context of a recession.  That is not the right question.  The question is, has there ever been a recession that did not usher in a bear market, and I don't know of any.  We've already had a 35% drawdown in stock prices, followed by the best recovery in stock market history, but we didn't get back to new highs.  I think everyone believes we are in a recession, Q1 GDP was -5% and Q2 will be worse.  Those numbers are artificially influenced, but its still a recession.  You've got a recession, high unemployment, high stock market valuation, the IMF just came out and pegged global growth for 2020 at -4% and that won't help the US economy.  It seems many are discounting the number of small business failures over the next six months, and think the economy will snap back quickly.  I don't share that view.  Luftansa announced 22,000 layoffs.   I think you will see a massive layoff by US airlines in Oct., they are probably working on the plan now, unless there is another round of government bailout.  Bankruptcies trickle in, like J Crew, Whiting Petroleum, Diamond Offshore, JC Penny, Gold's Gym, Neiman Marcus, Hertz, GNC, 24 Hour Fitness and Chucky Cheese.  Granted there is plenty of fiscal and monetary support, but they have not convinced me that they are stronger than mother nature.  If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, its probably a duck. 


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My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.  During the Corona virus bear market I use more sector funds to avoid the bad spots in the SPY such as energy, hotels, and the airlines.


#5 humbled

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Posted 27 June 2020 - 09:22 PM

i read an article at CNBC with contribution from JPM, from March 14, they kept saying there had been bear markets outside the context of a recession.  That is not the right question.  The question is, has there ever been a recession that did not usher in a bear market, and I don't know of any.  We've already had a 35% drawdown in stock prices, followed by the best recovery in stock market history, but we didn't get back to new highs.  I think everyone believes we are in a recession, Q1 GDP was -5% and Q2 will be worse.  Those numbers are artificially influenced, but its still a recession.  You've got a recession, high unemployment, high stock market valuation, the IMF just came out and pegged global growth for 2020 at -4% and that won't help the US economy.  It seems many are discounting the number of small business failures over the next six months, and think the economy will snap back quickly.  I don't share that view.  Luftansa announced 22,000 layoffs.   I think you will see a massive layoff by US airlines in Oct., they are probably working on the plan now, unless there is another round of government bailout.  Bankruptcies trickle in, like J Crew, Whiting Petroleum, Diamond Offshore, JC Penny, Gold's Gym, Neiman Marcus, Hertz, GNC, 24 Hour Fitness and Chucky Cheese.  Granted there is plenty of fiscal and monetary support, but they have not convinced me that they are stronger than mother nature.  If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, its probably a duck. 

Well said.


BIT #10:

Donít focus on the money. Focus on executing trades well.

If you are getting in and out of trades rationally, the money will take care of itself.

--from 40 Bits of Trading Wisdom (posted by Capitulation years ago on FF)