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my guess is it just topped fwiw


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#21 Waver

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:56 AM

 

 

Sell Bonds, buy Stocks.  Jerry Siegel, worth a listen.  
  https://ritholtz.com/2020/06/mib-jeremy-siegel-covid-market/

I agree with JS. I  am in  that process already.
 
I thought you would like it if you had not seen/heard it yet.  It is dated June 21st.
 
The bonds saved my butt during March decline.
My instincts said the clearance sale in March in stocks was a good time to begin switching.
So far so good. If my target is reached in July, I am very likely to hit the sidelines.
I am becoming more and more risk averse as an octogenarian. 

PDX - what is your target?

#22 CHAx

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 08:08 AM

I have 3140~ ES area as last stand for the bears.  And this is not based upon the last highs (in fact this is one reason Im not excited about it,  I wonder if shorting 3160~ looking for an 8 hour wick candle might be the way to play it) Probably get at least an 8 hour selloff on the futures around there, not sure if it will be just a bump or a turn, but a spot to ease off the gas for the bulls IMO.  Any strong 8 hour closes after that = new highs incoming and only short for scalps imo.

 

I haven't played any swing trades in equity futures for 10 trading days now because I'm not getting clear signals.  Just been playing some longs in SI/GC/NG - looks like im done with NG after getting stopped out over night though.  That 10% move earlier in the week was fun though ,  caught that play with a 1% stop loss.


Edited by CHAx, 01 July 2020 - 08:12 AM.


#23 K Wave

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 08:34 AM

I have 3140~ ES area as last stand for the bears.  And this is not based upon the last highs (in fact this is one reason Im not excited about it,  I wonder if shorting 3160~ looking for an 8 hour wick candle might be the way to play it) Probably get at least an 8 hour selloff on the futures around there, not sure if it will be just a bump or a turn, but a spot to ease off the gas for the bulls IMO.  Any strong 8 hour closes after that = new highs incoming and only short for scalps imo.

 

I haven't played any swing trades in equity futures for 10 trading days now because I'm not getting clear signals.  Just been playing some longs in SI/GC/NG - looks like im done with NG after getting stopped out over night though.  That 10% move earlier in the week was fun though ,  caught that play with a 1% stop loss.

I think bears lost the last battle that matters at the backtest of the hourly 900  around 3K 2 days ago.

 

Now Dow and RUT have both reclaimed hourly 900 and Trannies looking to do it today with a massive gap above it.

 

NYA is the only laggard at this point.


Edited by K Wave, 01 July 2020 - 08:34 AM.

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#24 CHAx

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 08:54 AM

 

I have 3140~ ES area as last stand for the bears.  And this is not based upon the last highs (in fact this is one reason Im not excited about it,  I wonder if shorting 3160~ looking for an 8 hour wick candle might be the way to play it) Probably get at least an 8 hour selloff on the futures around there, not sure if it will be just a bump or a turn, but a spot to ease off the gas for the bulls IMO.  Any strong 8 hour closes after that = new highs incoming and only short for scalps imo.

 

I haven't played any swing trades in equity futures for 10 trading days now because I'm not getting clear signals.  Just been playing some longs in SI/GC/NG - looks like im done with NG after getting stopped out over night though.  That 10% move earlier in the week was fun though ,  caught that play with a 1% stop loss.

I think bears lost the last battle that matters at the backtest of the hourly 900  around 3K 2 days ago.

 

Now Dow and RUT have both reclaimed hourly 900 and Trannies looking to do it today with a massive gap above it.

 

NYA is the only laggard at this point.

 

 

Yeah, I can see your IT stuff flips positioning quite a bit faster than mine.  Which has its benefits/costs.  My work is price analysis and inter-market analysis.   Fib and Don are still in neutral/short positioning based upon breadth.  Reliable breadth commentators worth noting.  Has me cautious from setting up swing longs for the time being.



#25 K Wave

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 09:52 AM

NYA as the laggard still needs to be watched.

 

just made what is likely to be key pivot going forward for it....

 

Unless it it can breach that 5 min 900, bear still technically in business there...

 

If it does get breached later on, then it will very likely join in on the upside turn in longer time frames.

 

nya.png


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#26 K Wave

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 09:56 AM

And hourly NYA shows how important that 5 min pivot likely is in regards to hourly chart.

 

So IF bears were going to take the ball away, where it just tagged would be the spot.

 

Above that pivot just set, and bulls likely start to run wild...

 

nya.png


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#27 redfoliage2

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 10:38 AM

A warning sign - the internals lagging today.  Expect some selling tomorrow before the long weekend  .....................


Edited by redfoliage2, 01 July 2020 - 10:41 AM.


#28 CHAx

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 10:54 AM

Surprising that gap isn't filled yet.  Thanks for sharing.



#29 K Wave

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 11:19 AM

VIX still getting crushed...


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