41 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

BIG  pivot was set today on SPX.

 

Don't know if it will last only a day, or for months at this point.
 

But what I do know is when that pivot gets taken out, that island is toast, and new highs will follow.

 

Action on NYA, RUT, XLF not great since yesterday morning and could be a warning shot across the bow at an extremely key pivot zone.

That triple spike I noted yesterday on RUT hourly was particularly ugly/worrisome. With today's failure right at the back test of 1440, and today's action into the close on RUT, it did not make it look any better....

If Dow and Trannies start to join in downside tomorrow, then would be another warning sign...

 

I see no reason to be aggressively long at this point until at least  RUT 1440 and NYA 12,100 levels are breached upside.

 

When attempted breakouts fail, is often when you see some of the worst declines.

 

If the market does recover those levels before taking a swan dive, then will get super levered long....but right now, all these laggards not being able to break out and join in upside is concerning...

 

 

 

Edited by K Wave, 07 July 2020 - 07:56 PM.

[K Wave]

Dow futs hourly still potentially bullish as 200 MA starts to turn up...

 

But if that gets taken out later today........

 

We are likely real close to getting various indices "synced up", and when they do, we should see decent sized move...

 

 

 

[K Wave]

Watching NYA here this AM...if it can take out yesterday's high, then bears likely got big problems.

 

And if not, another warning sign to bulls....

 

let's see what happens dead ahead here....

[K Wave]

Here comes NYA for the back test of the 1 min 900....moment of truth dead ahead....

 

Do or die for bulls right here....

[K Wave]

Pivot looks set on NYA....if leaning bearish, that was the place to attempt short...

 

If that pivot gets blown out later....look out above....

[K Wave]

Trannies barely eke out Bullish engulfing 1st hour off the 200 MA....

 

If we get follow through there, then bears may be about to head for their caves....

 

But back below the opening stick, and bulls tank may have run dry....

 

This looks like huge moment of truth area on the various charts....

[K Wave]

SOX pushing to fresh swing high...can it lead the bulls out of the hole???

[kaiser soze]

The SOX leading up is good for the Tech complex.  I'm not sure it impacts the Dow or the small caps that much, my fundamentals-based argument being that semiconductor stocks are a play on global growth and cloud computing.  Cloud computing has been boosted by COVID-19, and chip stocks get a large percentage of their revenue from Asia, which has largely managed to control and contain the virus. 

[K Wave]

SOX pushing to fresh swing high...can it lead the bulls out of the hole???

And SOX immediately gives it up..back under 2040 and bear odds will start to look a bit better

[K Wave]

The SOX leading up is good for the Tech complex.  I'm not sure it impacts the Dow or the small caps that much, my fundamentals-based argument being that semiconductor stocks are a play on global growth and cloud computing.  Cloud computing has been boosted by COVID-19, and chip stocks get a large percentage of their revenue from Asia, which has largely managed to control and contain the virus. 

I am short since this AM at the obvious spot.

 

Just watching SOX for possible clues...and it may have just given a big one....

Edited by K Wave, 08 July 2020 - 10:03 AM.