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run its course no lock downs needed


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#1 traderx

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Posted 16 July 2020 - 07:18 AM

Several  keep saying that. 

Couple days back 34 states increasing, today 42.

 

We know a lot more now, how to handle it, than we did during the crisis in March and April and it still gets worse.

 

No lock down run its course people, give your forecasts when  we will be OK, or show which states had no lock downs and are good now.



#2 gismeu

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Posted 16 July 2020 - 08:49 AM

Food for thought - gis

 

 

How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

 

A 1% mortality rate might not seem like much, but the death rate for COVID-19 is just the tip of a massive iceberg that the US economy is heading towards full-steam ahead.

 

From Franklin Veaux's Quora post:

For every one person who dies:

  • 19 more require hospitalization.
  • 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
  • 10 will have permanent lung damage.
  • 3 will have strokes.
  • 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
  • 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.

So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:

  • 3,282,000 people dead.
  • 62,358,000 hospitalized.
  • 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
  • 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
  • 9,846,000 people with strokes.
  • 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
  • 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.

His conclusion: "The choice is not 'ruin the economy to save 1%.' If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19."


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#3 traderx

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Posted 16 July 2020 - 09:17 AM

good points



#4 pdx5

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Posted 16 July 2020 - 09:49 AM

Some bad math here...

 

"So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:

  • 3,282,000 people dead."

 

The old adage is so true, figures never lie but liers figure!

That 1% death rate is among those who test positive.

The entire population of USA of 328 million is NOT positive.

 

So what is the proposed solution? Everybody hide in basements until covid-19 is extinct?

Or do what I am doing, aerobic exercise 6-7 times every week to keep lungs in wonderful shape ( I can hold my breath for 90 seconds easy), and go on a crowded cruise like I did ending on February 29th, with 3000 passengers and crew on the ship, avoid shaking hands with anyone, and get minimum exposure of covid-19 virus in my lungs? My body fought off the minimum exposure and after 10 days that strange dry cough was gone by  itself without any treatment. Now I believe I am more immune to further covid-19 infection than some others who are hiding in their basements. 


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#5 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 16 July 2020 - 03:21 PM

The IFR is somewhere near 0.1%. My confidence in that number grows with more better treatments.

 

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#6 traderx

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Posted 16 July 2020 - 03:49 PM

YES, better treatments keep coming---you are right.



#7 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 16 July 2020 - 04:52 PM

It's kind of annoying that we're not happier about them!!!

 

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