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The Bull Market Stalls At Overhead Resistance


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2020 - 09:26 PM

S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Bull Market Stalls At Overhead Resistance
Summary

It’s all about "technicals" now as the market responds to support and struggles at resistance.

Economics data continues to improve with more reports indicating "expansion".

The synchronized economic rebound has kicked off a global market rally.

Corporate earnings season starts off with stellar results from the Financial sector.

https://seekingalpha...head-resistance



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2020 - 09:30 PM

Crash? 
 

The Coming Stock Market Crash - Smart Money Is Already Ringing The Death Bell
Summary

Not only are we in a crazy rally, but there are indications that the recession will last longer than some people think.

There are also signs that the rally is not being driven by smart money at the moment.

I will continue to invest my planned rates but will now also focus my due diligence even more on defensive business models and solid balance sheets.

https://seekingalpha...tigniter-widget



#3 pdx5

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Posted 18 July 2020 - 09:33 PM

It is not a crazy rally if you are riding it juggle.gif

 

The rally is based on NOP (no other place)  for money which the FED is pumping out and the Trillions sent to Americans due to the pandemic. 


Edited by pdx5, 18 July 2020 - 09:36 PM.

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#4 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2020 - 09:33 PM

Stocks Struggle As The Bull Market In Virus Cases Rises

Technically Trapped

Last week, we discussed why we were taking profits in positions that had gotten egregiously overbought for the second time this year. To wit:

“For the second time in a single year, we have begun the profit-taking process within our most profitable names. Apple, Microsoft, Netflix, Amazon, Costco, PG, and in Communications and Technology ETFs.”

That turned out to be timely as technology shares struggled to maintain their altitude. The tight “wedge” pattern that has developed suggests a downside break could quickly lead to a test of the 50-dma. Such would equate to about a 7% decline.

  1. Furthermore, the S&P 500 continues to remain “technically trapped” between the June highs and the recent consolidation lows. With the market overbought on a short-term basis, the upside has remained limited. However, there is substantial support between the current uptrend line and the 50- and 200-dma’s, limiting downside risk at this juncture.

https://realinvestme...rises-07-17-20/



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2020 - 09:36 PM

Opinion: Thehidden risk in your S&P 500 index fund

How much of your retirement savings are you now gambling on the fortunes of just six companies?

If you’re holding them in an S&P 500 SPX stock market index fund, the answer is: About a quarter.

That’s how much the so-called “FANMAGs”—Facebook FB , Apple AAPL , Netflix NFLX , Microsoft MSFT , Amazon AMZN and Google (“Alphabet”) GOOG — now account of the blue chip U.S. index by value. And that’s how much of each $1 you hold in an S&P 500 index fund, like the State Street SPDR S&P 500 Trust SPY , you are investing in just this half dozen enterprises.

https://www.marketwa...7?mod=home-page



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2020 - 09:45 PM

I still am not convinced the recent surge will greatly affect the economy; BUT, there cannot be a V-recovery if 

if there is a rollback of reopening. Logical.

 

Coronavirus update: U.S. reports yet another record case tally for a single day while global cases top 14 million

A document prepared for the White House Task Force created to manage the crisis that was obtained by the nonprofit Center for Public Integrity is recommending that 18 states with rising cases roll back their reopening measures. The states have been determined to be in a red zone, defined as “those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases above 100 per 100,000 population, and a diagnostic test positivity result above 10%.”

The states referred to are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.

https://www.marketwa...8?mod=home-page


Edited by dTraderB, 18 July 2020 - 09:45 PM.


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2020 - 09:52 PM

MOC been to buy only four days in July. I don't know what it means but it's a change.
 
At 3224 Friday's close for the SPX was the highest weekly close since February
 
Market Vane Bulls at 41%, The most since (checks notes) mid February. LOL


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2020 - 09:55 PM

In the month of July the equity put/call ratio has had exactly one reading over .50
 
Put/Call Ratio for ETFs been sub 1.0 last three days. Last time was early June. Before that was early Feb. But had a whole string of them in December too.
 
McClellan Summation Index (red) with SPX. 3 weeks of rallying and can hardly lift itself up.


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2020 - 09:57 PM

Citi Panic/Euphoria

in euphoria territory

https://twitter.com/...473385179910145



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2020 - 09:59 PM

  1. Closing the week with an important update: $NDX Daily Sentiment 50d has reached the Top 4% most overbought in history (20 years), and Top 1% since 2011. Only 17 days in 9 years got this high: Jan 26-Feb 1 2018 May 3-10 2019 Jan 20-27 2020 Monitoring – will revisit this soon.