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Turn Risk Windows for This Week


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 05:10 AM

According to my risk summation system the days this week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday the 20th and Friday the 24th of July.  

 

Last week, as I warned, the risk windows Monday and Tuesday were a DJIA whipsaw buzz saw, first up 500 then down 600 then up 1000.  I don't know what to make of the Friday the 17th risk window.  It really looked risky on paper.  A big rally today would make it look a bit like a low, but otherwise I guess it was a just a garden variety dud.

 

I know I've said it before, but this and next week are pivotal to the big scheme of things market-wise.  All the "it's a 2nd wave" Elliott folks will have to throw in the towel if a new high is made in the S&P which isn't that big of a step from here.  A new high should also give a big boost to some of the sentiment survey figures which have been until now too bearish correctly, in a contrary way, predicting higher prices.  Turning the corner or stepping off the cliff of the pandemic, depending on your politics, should also be clearer in the next two weeks.  The next tranche of Federal funny money stimulus should also be approved or not by then.  So lots of loose ends should be in hand one way or the other over the next two weeks. 

 

Given the trend is your friend, you have to think that the best bet, initially at least, would be for a sharp rally into the stratosphere.  As always, my cracked crystal ball prognostications are probably not worth the lead it would take to send them to Boot Hill, caveat emptor.  

 

Regards,

Douglas 


Edited by Douglas, 20 July 2020 - 05:15 AM.


#2 salam

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 08:00 AM

Thank you

 

my only amendment would be suggesting changing the word ‘Politics’ to ‘Trust in science and medicine’ ! 
 


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#3 Douglas

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 09:13 AM

Salam, it's a testament to the sad state of affairs that we're suffering through that I even have to add any corollary to that statement.  We are literally all actors in a live on-stage production of Orwell's 1984.  "War is peace.  Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength."

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 SemiBizz

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 11:11 AM

All about numbers to me... gotta tune out the news noise.

 

I had "Up through OPEX" in the forecast due to seasonality.

 

This week is the seasonal time of pullbacks off extreme upside moves... sometimes the pullbacks are only flat.


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#5 pdx5

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 12:48 PM

Thank you

 

my only amendment would be suggesting changing the word ‘Politics’ to ‘Trust in science and medicine’ ! 
 

You mean like when scientist predicted back in January there could be 2-2.25 million deaths in USA from covid-19?

Or when the most famous virologist in country, one Dr Fauci said in February it is not necessary to ban incoming travel from China?

Or was it the same famed Dr Fauci, darling of the leftist media said back in March that face masks are not necessary?

 

Or is it the science and medicine which has failed to deliver us a vaccine for the disease responsible for more missed working days than any other disease, the common cold, another virus from the corona family?


Edited by pdx5, 20 July 2020 - 12:50 PM.

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#6 salam

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 12:54 PM

Salam, it's a testament to the sad state of affairs that we're suffering through that I even have to add any corollary to that statement.  We are literally all actors in a live on-stage production of Orwell's 1984.  "War is peace.  Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength."

 

Regards,

Douglas

Awesome quote! Perfect summary.

 

In the UK, we have a populist, who uses division to give him strength. Fortunately, his finance minister cares about average Joe as much as his elite friends, and has produced a social democratic support net for the less wealthy. 

But.....despite the inconsistencies, an albeit late lockdown has saved lives, and flattened the curve.

 

i remain bullish above ES 3190. The current pivot, into earnings. Tesla on Wednesday may provide some reality to tech. Stimulus bill should be sold on conclusion. I don’t believe we are seeing rotation into value.....just....techs bubbling away.

 

ill be watching the banking sectors results with interest.

 

News and momentum continue to Trump fundamental valuations 


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#7 salam

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 12:57 PM

All about numbers to me... gotta tune out the news noise.

 

I had "Up through OPEX" in the forecast due to seasonality.

 

This week is the seasonal time of pullbacks off extreme upside moves... sometimes the pullbacks are only flat.

wise words too Semi....all about numbers.

 

Sentiment is finally turning bullish as bears continue to be decimated.

 

capitulation will come soon.

 

in the meantime, I will continue to buy the dips and scale in on my Vix etf longs 


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#8 Douglas

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 02:13 PM

Salam, I'm also in the UK in deep southwest Dorset, but I'm originally from Texas, so I'm a bit of a duck out of water. Do you also trade and track stocks on the LSE?  They have really been beaten down first by BREXIT and now Covid.  They should go on a tear if these terrible two get resolved positively any time soon.  I'm amazed how thin the LSE trading is.  You can move prices around with a relatively small stock order.  

 

Regards,

Douglas