According to my risk summation system the days this week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday the 20th and Friday the 24th of July.
Last week, as I warned, the risk windows Monday and Tuesday were a DJIA whipsaw buzz saw, first up 500 then down 600 then up 1000. I don't know what to make of the Friday the 17th risk window. It really looked risky on paper. A big rally today would make it look a bit like a low, but otherwise I guess it was a just a garden variety dud.
I know I've said it before, but this and next week are pivotal to the big scheme of things market-wise. All the "it's a 2nd wave" Elliott folks will have to throw in the towel if a new high is made in the S&P which isn't that big of a step from here. A new high should also give a big boost to some of the sentiment survey figures which have been until now too bearish correctly, in a contrary way, predicting higher prices. Turning the corner or stepping off the cliff of the pandemic, depending on your politics, should also be clearer in the next two weeks. The next tranche of Federal funny money stimulus should also be approved or not by then. So lots of loose ends should be in hand one way or the other over the next two weeks.
Given the trend is your friend, you have to think that the best bet, initially at least, would be for a sharp rally into the stratosphere. As always, my cracked crystal ball prognostications are probably not worth the lead it would take to send them to Boot Hill, caveat emptor.
Edited by Douglas, 20 July 2020 - 05:15 AM.