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#1 CLK

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Posted 25 July 2020 - 10:09 AM

Time to hedge again ?

 

So, who wants to make the call on NYSI here before the fact, top, or not?

 

Sure looks like the divergence in Feb., let's see how easy it is to call it right.

 

 

 

http://schrts.co/qVudXmMZ


Edited by CLK, 25 July 2020 - 10:10 AM.


#2 CLK

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Posted 25 July 2020 - 10:29 AM

So, AAII was near 2 at the April FOMC top in 2019 and 1.5 at the July FOMC top, now we have it at

about 0.5. The June FOMC top was at 0.9, so almost double where it is now, but did not save investors from 

a fast 10% drop. So we have the same divergence from 2019, just at a lower AAII level, 0.9 vs. 0.54.

I would say that AAII is only for big tops, we are getting 10% corrections nowhere close to the 2.0 red overbought line.

It could be another year before it hits 2.0 again, meantime price could do anything. above1.0 and the only thing that would keep price moving up is the bullish seasonal from Nov. to April.


Edited by CLK, 25 July 2020 - 10:30 AM.


#3 blustar

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Posted 25 July 2020 - 03:44 PM

Time to hedge again ?

 

So, who wants to make the call on NYSI here before the fact, top, or not?

 

Sure looks like the divergence in Feb., let's see how easy it is to call it right.

 

 

 

http://schrts.co/qVudXmMZ

Yep. My astro cycles are saying the exact same thing. Now we need to possibly hear from  "Snort, snort, watch the sky" Don to confirm. Either way it won't matter I suppose.



#4 Darris

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Posted 25 July 2020 - 10:25 PM

Time to hedge again ?

 

So, who wants to make the call on NYSI here before the fact, top, or not?

I think we can give equal weight on a potential outcome to what looks similar to the peak in late Feb 2019 after the Dec 2018 low.  The NYSI has thrusted in time and travel.  In 2019 2400 travel points, and this year 2300 in similar amounts of time.  We will see how long this momentum keeps the NYSI above the zero line.  My guess is J POW will be more positive this Wed vs what he said June 10th.



#5 K Wave

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 07:45 AM

This is actually potentially starting to look worse than the Davey Daytrader Tri-Star top area from June.

 

First we had the trend line break in AAPL, which (perhaps after a bounce towards 380) is likely to lead to a more extended decline.

 

Then on Friday, 2 more potentially big warning signs:

 

First, JPY Vol looking a bit too much like Feb, when it also gave a huge early warning.

 

jpyvol.png

 

And 2nd, Massive gap down on NAZ Summation one a day with not overly terrible price action.... after MUCH lower, massively divergent high.

 

mc.png

 

I am gearing things short now, until I see price and breadth action that proves that the bears are wrong here...

Rising wedge breaks can be brutal, and perhaps NAZ is just about to experience one....

 


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#6 K Wave

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 07:48 AM

Not to mention the total disaster on INTC...fell off a cliff...not likely great sign

 

intc.png


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#7 K Wave

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 08:08 AM

RUT....reversed right at 900 day with momo turning down from lower level.

 

Unless that situation gets reversed soon, this could lead to an extended decline.

 

rut.png[

 

RUT 4 hour a bit further along on the rollover...also right at the 900. A test down to the 200 MA on this chart would not surprise me at all, and possibly quite a bit lower if that does not hold.

 

Daily and 4 hour synchronicity could turn out to be a powerful combo for a decline setup.

 

rut4.png

 

And here is RUT 2 hour, which could still possibly be stick saved depending on next couple days action.

 

A breach of the 200 would be first real sign of doom for a bit...

 

Bottom line, until the declining momo trendlines are busted upside on these charts, bears get benefit of doubt here for a bit.

But....should those trendlines get busted upside....then could be a big buy signal on RUT with multiple longer time frames at such pivotal spot.

 

rut2.png

 

 


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#8 K Wave

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 08:17 AM

And here is NYA with very similar looks.

 

Daily

 

nya.png

 

4 Hour

 

nya4.png

 

2 hour

 

nya2.png


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#9 K Wave

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 08:23 AM

And here is the Trannies looking nearly identical as well....very important pivot zone methnks

 

Daily

 

tran.png

 

4 Hour

 

tran4.png

 

2 Hour

 

tran2.png


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#10 K Wave

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 08:24 AM

Using RUT 5 min 900 and RUT 1460 level could turn out to be a pretty good guide post early next week...

 

RUT5.png


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