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Risk Window for Market Turn This Week


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 25 July 2020 - 01:52 PM

According to my risk summation system, the day this coming week with the highest risk of a turn up or acceleration of the current trend down is Monday July 27th.  It was not identified by my system, but FED day Wednesday July 29th is probably also a high risk day for market gyrations.

 

Last week's Monday risk window tagged a short term low.  The action on Monday the 27th will determine if last Friday's risk window tagged another short term low or if it was a dud. 

 

The FED speak in the middle of next week should be very interesting.  Do they keep the printer running full tilt and risk being accused of putting their thumb on the election scales, or go to a slightly more neutral stance and risk popping the market bubble also affecting the election.  It's quite the quandary.  I guess it might depend on the size of the next stimulus bill slithering its way through the halls of Congress.  If they go big, it should take pressure off the FED. If they're Scrooges, I suppose the FED will feel that they have to step up to fill the gap.  

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 25 July 2020 - 01:53 PM.


#2 blustar

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Posted 25 July 2020 - 03:37 PM

My work tells me a big up day Monday and top Tuesday (SPX 3288/90) c of C from June 11, B being an xyz bull flag into 7/24. I mean the top after the run up from March 23 is coming soon. SPX broke its rising wedge Friday in what I call the 'false break' and will gap back inside Monday.  Friday was a Gann square date and also a 4/8/11 combo TD low. There was a Bradley turn due the 23rd.  The last 11 TD low we saw like this was Feb 18 from the Jan 31 16+5 Gann low (this time July 24 from July 9) The 11 TD low came an hour later this time on Friday suggesting an early Tuesday high near 3288/90. 8 TD lows suggest a min. 2 TD's up.

 

Jupiter Sextiles Neptune again like Feb 20 on the 27th (back then the top came one day before or on, this time one day after). Oil looks to rally minimally for 2 days like Feb 18-20. Gold and silver should top early Thursday and go down abc into Aug 20 (just like March 16) there is a Bradley, a major one due Aug 19!!

 

My work suggests selling on FED day will  see gap down Thursday (to near 3114 the July 9 low) and follow through Friday hard down. An attempt to rally on the first trading day of August on the full moon with the Sun squaring Neptune should be sold into the 5th (8/16+3 TD low). The 4th has Mars sq.Jupiter!! My target for August 5 is the May 14 low of 2766 SPX down about 15.86%!!! Just like Feb 20-28!!  We have a mirror here, very rare!!

 

P/C Ratios are extreme, and in some cases never seen. Mars squares the Capricorn Stellium of Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn Aug 4 - 24.  The societal implications may end up being worse than the meltdown into August 27. Uranus is aspected as secondary and terciary tops on August 2 (3rd) and 15 (14th) with the Sun sq. Uranus and Uranus Sta/Retro. Mars sq. Pluto on the 13th which should be a low before the Uranus R top. The Sun/Mer trines Mars 8/16-17 losing the top on the 14th, so the 17th to 18th is down into the new moon, reversing up into the 19th then down into the 20th on the Virgo moon once more just like July 22-24 only more pronounced.

 

The lows will form on mutable moon signs of Pisces, Virgo, Gemini and Sagittarius, watch for this also. July 24 the moon was in Virgo. Next week in Sagittarius, the following Pisces, then Gemini on the 13th. Watch!



#3 salam

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Posted 25 July 2020 - 03:47 PM

Hi Doug.

 

if ES 2290 holds Monday, I’m expecting a nice retrace into the fed Meeting.

 

Then, sell off into two feel bad Fridays in a row. 
 

looking to buy a dip tomorrow/Monday 


I'm not sure what my future holds... But I know who holds it.

#4 Douglas

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 04:54 AM

Blustar, with you, me and Salam that makes three for three thinking a low on Monday and then selling on the FED meeting.  We need some bears to call for more selling tomorrow and bulls to call for a rally on the FED news, or my contrary antennae will start to twitch.  A call for the top on Tuesday is bold.  The bull market road since March 23rd is littered with mangled top calling bears run over by this big MACK truck driving bull.  I admire your courage. 

 

I do use all the astro turn date stuff that I can find in my risk summation calculations from folks like Norm Winski and Arch Crawford, but my engineering education makes me think that it's probably just all hooey.  For me it's a bit like the fact that there's no atheists in foxholes when the bullets start flying.  I use whatever I can in this market battle including astro signals, a slightly cracked crystal ball and even prayer regardless of whether I believe in it or not. 

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 26 July 2020 - 04:57 AM.


#5 risktaker

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 04:30 PM

Choppy market ahead...

#6 gismeu

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 05:34 PM

Just wondering if you ever read Ray Merriman’s free weekly forecasts?

https://www.mmacycles.com/

Thanks, gis
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#7 salam

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 06:33 PM

Long 3294

10 point stop 

scaling in 


I'm not sure what my future holds... But I know who holds it.

#8 salam

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 07:11 PM

Out 3207. 13 quick points 


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#9 Douglas

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 02:38 AM

gismeu, thanks for pointing out Ray Merriman's web site.  I have added his free weekly newsletter to my reading list.  In his current one he notes two coming wide  periods of risk, Aug 4 - 24 and Aug 30 - Oct 12.  The first being summer doldrums in which markets are notoriously thin and easily moved since lots of New York traders have retreated to the Hamptons and the second one close enough to the election that the winner may be more obvious in the polls which will create volatility one way or the other.  These are big risk windows which we will all need to watch.

 

Regards,

Douglas