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SPX 3400 or 2900, which way first?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 05:50 AM

Closed my weekend long NQ hedge  +151.5 points, will reopen lower 
Daytrading NQ until casj session opens. Had a great week and a badly-needed weekend rest.

Holding 4 QQQ PUTS, 17 SPY PUTS, 2 CRUDE SHORT
Would certainly welcome the volatility of last week, big ranges, big swings, and bubbling up and then bursting.

Market now at critical levels - it either pushes up to new ATHS or drops to rest the SPX 2900 levl 
Or, enter the Summer doldrums period,  hardly likely in this virus era. 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 05:53 AM

I agree with this analysis:

Have a great weekend! Success week for bears putting in a shooting star. FOMC meeting a major catalyst next week determining if this is a bear trap or a top. My plan: Bullish above 3230 targetting 3290+. Support is 3155 & 3105. For bears: If 3105 is lost its a heavy short to 2990


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 06:02 AM

#ES_F Likely to test that 3230 zone overnight - big level, break above would target 3270 - 3290
10:09 PM · Jul 26, 2020


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 06:02 AM

what can the FED do will motivate the BULLS, or BEARS?   Nothing, for now? 



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 06:05 AM

Stunning speculation in gold and silver: SLV (silver ETF) call volume is at an ALL-TIME HIGH, higher than even in 2011 GLD (gold ETF) call volume is near one of the highest levels ever


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 06:06 AM

Incredibly persistent trend: NASDAQ's 20 day moving average has gone up 75 days in a row! This is the *6th* longest streak ever. ALL historically long streaks always led to a pullback in the NASDAQ and S&P over the next month


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 06:07 AM

Rates Volatility (MOVE Index) hit a new all-time record low. History shows periods of low Vol preceded some BIG moves in Rates. Either way, the calm didn't last. Also important: spikes in Rates Vol impacted all assets – Stocks a prime example, especially in recent years.


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 06:08 AM

More and more USD talk last week with dire warnings if it breaks up or down - for bulls or bears
 

USD sentiment: Dollar Optimism Index is at the *lowest* 1% of readings over the past 10 years. Traders have rarely been this bearish on USD A rally in USD could be a major risk for stocks in the months ahead.


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 06:11 AM

·
 

15h 

 

Most signs are pointing me to believe stocks may make one last hurrah towards 3296-3300 zone before a sustained move down Now 3206



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 06:14 AM

Various measures of #sentiment all suggest that #investors have gotten well ahead of #reality. Of course, when investors start using 3-year Forward #estimates to value stocks...you knew that was kind of the case.