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AAII ..,....wowser

80% not bullish

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#11 da_cheif

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 10:45 AM

I am not sure normal TA applies here. Covid-19 situation is not normal. Fear of covid pounded 24-7 by media exceeds reality.

Trade safe!

oh really??  u of so little faith



#12 da_cheif

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 10:48 AM

From SentimentTrader:

Saying the AAII survey represents "investor sentiment" is like saying AARP represents "people".

And if you bought stocks the last time "investor sentiment" was this low for this long, you woulda had a hefty 49% drawdown. https://t.co/VzDrv8Soyb

 

wink.png

ya right    675 ono   2220 ono       the first time i posted AAII many moons ago if you would have bot the market and still had it.....u wudnt be torturing urself day trading.....lol



#13 redfoliage2

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 10:55 AM

It looks lots of bears out there, but probably just a bunch with no commitment.  Look at the market today:  bears were in like lions and now ..........


Edited by redfoliage2, 30 July 2020 - 11:00 AM.


#14 blustar

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 11:17 AM

We got out yesterday as it was a 4 TD top [it didn't make my target obviously]sad.png .  Today is a 4/32 TD low.  That means up into Aug 3.  That is the max it can go in my book based on the Sun opposing the Capricorn Stellium Jan 14-20. Jan 20 + 2 weeks is Aug 3. It is also 1 week past the Jupiter/Neptune Sextile, a topping sign. Today also created a TLC low for Sept 3. It was also a Bradley turn. Sept 3 minus 23 TD's [the move down from Feb 19-March 23 took 23 TDs'] = Aug 3. I have a double astro top due Aug 2/3 and Aug 2 also has the Sun sq. Uranus.  The next day Mars sq. Jupiter...no bueno! There is an another astro low due Friday next week and a top around the 10th or 11 (probably the 10th), so down into August 12?

 

I believe we could see as high as 3324/28 Aug 3, but minimum 3299/3306 by Friday in any case. Today's pull back makes it easier to climb up strongly as bullish moves are birthed out of sell-offs, especially when the trend is up and it still is.  Last week saw an xyz pattern on the SPX and it is saying new highs ahead over 3280. The NASDAQ pattern looks strong to me. Ouch the Dow 30 made a new low! A lot of rotation going on here!


Edited by blustar, 30 July 2020 - 11:18 AM.


#15 LMF

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 11:38 AM

[quote name="pdx5" post="829993" timestamp="1596123167"]

32.9% drop in 2nd quarter GDP is nothing to sneeze at.
 
Can the Niagara Falls of money from FED be enough to prop up the market?
Very interesting times lie ahead.
 

I think when you have the reserve currency and the Fed does it right, they can print to infinity. Or close enough that the levels dont really ever matter. The Fed has that part figured out atleast.

#16 redfoliage2

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 11:50 AM

Its nonsense at this point of the unprecedented crisis to focus on GDP numbers. The analysts just have no clues whats going on and what to look at .......

Edited by redfoliage2, 30 July 2020 - 11:51 AM.


#17 pdx5

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 11:55 AM

Its nonsense at this point of the unprecedented crisis to focus on GDP numbers. The analysts just have no clues whats going on and what to look at .......

That is true. These GDP numbers were EXPECTED with the forced shutdown.

However the length of recovery period will come into play by 2020Q4 or 2021Q1.

If GDP dropped by 33% during normal times, soup lines would be next.


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#18 da_cheif

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 11:57 AM

 

Its nonsense at this point of the unprecedented crisis to focus on GDP numbers. The analysts just have no clues whats going on and what to look at .......

That is true. These GDP numbers were EXPECTED with the forced shutdown.

However the length of recovery period will come into play by 2020Q4 or 2021Q1.

If GDP dropped by 33% during normal times, soup lines would be next.

 

GDP numbers?     what were they in march 09?



#19 salam

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 12:12 PM

4/5 of my generals up today.....Microsoft only one in the red.

SP would be far lower today otherwise.

 

Expecting a breakdown of ES 3190 tomorrow for another feel bad Friday.


I'm not sure what my future holds... But I know who holds it.

#20 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 30 July 2020 - 12:13 PM

From SentimentTrader:

Saying the AAII survey represents "investor sentiment" is like saying AARP represents "people".

And if you bought stocks the last time "investor sentiment" was this low for this long, you woulda had a hefty 49% drawdown. https://t.co/VzDrv8Soyb

 

wink.png

This is why we make the determination as to whether we are in a Bull market, or a Bear market. Then we were in a Bear market. Today, we are in a Bull market.


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