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Amazing complacency

volatility bargains

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#1 flyers&divers

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Posted 31 July 2020 - 09:17 AM

I have been positioning long in the SQQQ buy buying out of the money call spreads.

This morning one can have the Sept 18 SQQQ 9/12 bull call for about .15 ($15)

If around September 18 the QQQ would trade where it was on June 1 this spread wold be priced minimum

10x higher. If SQQQ doubled from here the payoff would be 20X.

Evidently the market thinks SQQQ going to 9 to 12 is far fetched. Is it?

 

Regards,

F&D


"Successful trading is more about Sun Tzu then Elliott." F&D

#2 LMF

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Posted 31 July 2020 - 10:20 AM

The big VIX gap down to 18.21 is not going to help the bears. It would be better for them if they just let it fill. But who knows how long its going take. TQQQ is still digesting the big runup front end of Jul and the 60 minute didnt roll over from it. Just a normal ABC out of that suggests nearly 141 from here......B right now looks like a large bullish flag not a triangle move. Before the flag started TQQQ actually had a PF target of 198 which was negated. A new upside PF target cant start until it hits 124. I cant do much analysis on SQQQ when its down at 6. If they dont do a reverse split.....it becomes a bid ask spread ripoff scam most of the time. They take care of UVXY much better I think. In any case the next 5 min buy signal on TQQQ should occur within the next 2 hours from my system. See what the next leg higher looks like.

#3 LMF

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Posted 31 July 2020 - 10:51 AM

For SQQQ or UVXY..... I like the CNN greedo meter staying below 30. Not even close right now.

#4 flyers&divers

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Posted 31 July 2020 - 11:04 AM

I put these kind of trades on not because of confirmation from technicals but when beside the numbers they also fit into some realistic scenario

like political turbulence as we approach election day.

They may get cheaper or take a bit longer. In that case I'll add more and go further out.

 

F&D


"Successful trading is more about Sun Tzu then Elliott." F&D