203 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

Similar sentiments from ...ahh.. SENTIMRNT TRADER:

Risk is high and Dumb Money is confident...and they've been exactly right
The "dumb money" has been right, and they're not shy about letting everyone know about it.

It's a pejorative term, for sure, though we don't mean it that way. It's just shorthand for those investors who use a trend-following strategy. That can be perfectly valid, and they tend to be successful in riding the meat of a trend. Nothing wrong about that whatsoever. The issue arises when they become so confident that they establish their largest long positions AFTER markets have rallied hard, and their smallest after markets have declined.

 

Some "smart money" missed the thousands of points bull run from the March low and still on the sideline calling market crash while many "dumb money" keeps chasing the market higher and higher.  Which one is smart/dumb?  As long as these big "smart money" still on the sideline the market will keep going higher and higher, no limit due to the pandemic and the Fed's actions .  The market is just a container for the liquidity ..................

Edited by redfoliage2, 10 August 2020 - 12:08 PM.

[redfoliage2]

I would like a rapid blowout to at least NQ 11700

I have an ST target for NQ: 11500.   The current sector rotation should be short-lived and unable to last in this pandemic environment...............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 10 August 2020 - 12:19 PM.

[tsharp]

 

I have a similar count for the SP00s:

 

[alexnewbee]

We're at such extremes its ridiculous!  I never care about bull or bear markets and don't give a crap about new highs or not!  I just want to trade both up and down and were now at the stage we could wake up to -3% anytime and that's not a healthy market.   Even the watch the skyers should agree with that lol.  There's more to look at then just one indicator of bullish or bearish traders.  The market is at its most ever extreme valuation, so fundamentals suck,,, via options,, the new real market is at extreme extreme extreme bullishness with calls,,,, technically its almost extremely overbought and although down that darn volatility is refusing to get down to that 15 level.  Finally the Fed is pulling back with pomo so there's little help there.  Anyhow the only thing I'll hold overnight are shorts cause I'm worried there will be a -3% downer anytime or should I say lets hope so we get back to good tradeable markets instead of stretching it out to a new high and then straight down again.  One thing for sure that may start this volatility is were now in the final 10 days of trading for this expiration cycle and way to high for this stage of the cycle.... 

recently read good sentence "they have to make it go up, otherwise it will go down in an uncontrollable way" - they have no choice, but to continue this ponzi..

[12SPX]

Okay that worked out okay, 10 points profit for the day and now short with an average 3353 once again and even more overbought!  See how the nite session goes! 

[Darris]

recently read good sentence "they have to make it go up, otherwise it will go down in an uncontrollable way" - they have no choice, but to continue this ponzi..

 

 

 

Grind it up seemingly forever, and then ED, Elevator drop down.

[K Wave]

RUT futs finally hit the 1600 target overnight...remains to be seen whether that will hold until the open.

 

In any event, Rutty now pretty super extended, and pullback or at least backing off the gas for a while is a reasonable probability here.

 

My best guess is fairlry sharp drop back towards 1460 area starting fairly soon.

 

In other news, Tesla German unit sales were only 1.2% of EVs sold in Germany in July...like i said before, competition heating up...

The question is, when is the new reality going to hit the stock....

 

https://www.zerohedg...t-hyundai-group

[K Wave]

NQ continues to drastically underperform overnight....

 

While other index futs were going to fresh recovery highs, NQ could only manage back test of rolling over 5 min 900....

 

We may be a the the "Timber moment" there...see how the next few hours play out, and see especially if AAPL can crack 440....

[12SPX]

Well that was a nice pop overnight, love those radical fills one can get while sleeping!  See how the day session goes, average short now 3364!! 

[gismeu]

Well that was a nice pop overnight, love those radical fills one can get while sleeping!  See how the day session goes, average short now 3364!! 

Do you have a number or target for the SPX for the next option expiration cycle?

 

Thanks, gis