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Risk Windows This Week


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 07 September 2020 - 05:20 AM

According to my risk summation system, just about every cotton pickin' day this week has a relatively high risk of a turn or acceleration of the current trend.  I look at the total of all the risks that I track, a weighted sum of all these risks based on their past accuracy and fast centered moving averages of both of those for each day of the week.  Tuesday through Friday all pop up in one or more of these views.  The day which appears the most frequently is Wednesday the 9th, so I guess it should be at the top of the list, but it's a crowded list.

 

Last week the DJIA topped on a closing basis near the end of the Wednesday the 2nd risk window.  The DOW did make a higher high in the first hour of trading on Thursday, but then immediately turned tail and headed south closing much lower.  

 

The DOW is in serious need of a decent correction, but no one seems to have the cojones to fight the FED for any more than a quick day trade.  Maybe last week was the start of something given that September and October have provided a stage for roller coaster rides in the past.  Also the mud slinging in the election is about to go off the chart, so that might provide grist for a correction based on uncertainty, but again the FED put is there in the corner taunting the bears.  How do you short for the intermediate term if you know that crazy Uncle Jerry might step in at any minute and splash some more cash to juice the party again?  I guess hibernation is the only option for the bears while they wait for some B52 sized black swan bigger than the supposedly dispatched Covid bird to put them back in the game.  Holy mother of  pearl what could happen that's bigger than a global pandemic?  

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 pdx5

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Posted 07 September 2020 - 04:55 PM

"I guess hibernation is the only option for the bears while they wait for some B52 sized black swan bigger than the supposedly dispatched Covid bird to put them back in the game."

 

That about sums it up.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule