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Where is NDX headed?


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#11 tsharp

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Posted 12 September 2020 - 06:09 PM

FWIW, I have similar thoughts for the SOX and NBI:

 

 

SOX-W-9-11-20.jpg

 

 

NBI-W-9-11-20.jpg



#12 orange

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Posted 13 September 2020 - 02:21 AM

I have two models I'm working with at the moment. One has the market with a small bounce Monday or Tuesday which will eventually see another low. The other has us heading straight down Sunday night. I could be wrong on both, but I don't believe the market will hold a 3rd attempt at the low.


Edited by orange, 13 September 2020 - 02:22 AM.

"When your position is underwater, average down" - Trader Bob

#13 flyers&divers

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Posted 13 September 2020 - 08:39 AM

A gentle reminder,

 

overswing conditions can occur in both directions. Considering how far the indices, specially $NDX, exceeded the averages that may lead to similar excess on the downside.

In fact it happened in March April when - so clearly illustrated by the chart posted by steadyquest - the index quickly dropped 1500 to cross the 200ma and traveled another 1500 to bottom in April.

 

civil war IS a possibility

massive redemptions of retirement funds

robo trading coming home to roost 

Etc...Etc...

 

On the long term price is an expression of value, on shorter term it is a display of emotional conditions. Emotions rule and can get out of control. 

 

On Friday, as $NDX  tested and took out a swing low, index options implied volatility was LOWER then at the swing high on September 2.

That is a screaming example of complacency. 

 

Important downmoves seldom end in complacency, they usually end in near panic or panic conditions.

 

Regards,

F&D

 

 

 


"Successful trading is more about Sun Tzu then Elliott." F&D