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Massive Divergences in Europe Covid


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#11 colion

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Posted 14 September 2020 - 07:05 PM

Canada zero virus deaths yestetrday, 40 million population. USA  1499 deaths, population 340 million

Figure per capita.

5% of world population and 20 % of virus deaths

USA not bad, are you kidding?. 

 

 

Per capita death rate is a misleading for comparing outcomes between countries as it is essentially an indication of the overall disease burden in a country.  There are many variables to take into account, including reporting requirements (state by state in U.S.), population density, population health, therapeutics used. specific virus strain, etc.  Excess deaths would be a better metric but it is not final until C19 is gone although some running numbers are available.  On an ongoing basis, the epidemiological gold standard is case fatality rate which shows how well a country is responding to spread of the virus and preventing infected people from dying.  On that score the U.S.is doing OK (e.g., U.S. 3% and Canada 6.7%).  The experts will have to slice and dice the figures when all is said and done.  Choose your "poison" but I think case fatality rate is the best the guy in the street can hang his hat on at this time although new cases provides a good feel for trend.

 

John Hopkins case fatality rates by country at https://coronavirus....u/data/mortality


Edited by colion, 14 September 2020 - 07:10 PM.


#12 traderx

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Posted 14 September 2020 - 08:43 PM

On an ongoing basis, the epidemiological gold standard is case fatality rate which shows how well a country is responding to spread of the virus and preventing infected people from dying.

 

I agree with that, but 5% of world population 20% of world deaths, and not getting better.

 

Richest country in the world, best health care system and half of noble prize winners in science and health, whole world used to look to USA for leadership, now they look down on us.. Do these count? 

All over world comparison is by country. Check news in any country.

 As mentioned  obesity counts, but all other factors point to USA respons and handeling stinks!

Which country is doing well, that left all up to states, and no national program?



#13 traderx

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Posted 14 September 2020 - 08:52 PM

 On an ongoing basis, the epidemiological gold standard is case fatality rate which shows how well a country is responding to spread of the virus and preventing infected people from dying. 

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Maybe a good analogy

Say we live in a community where an arsonist has been starting fires for very long time.

We have not been able to catch him, but we have a great fire department that put out the fires, so it is a good community to buy a house and live in.



#14 traderx

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Posted 15 September 2020 - 06:48 AM

Watch New York/ northeast...that would be an actual 2nd wave.

Not even sure it is going to come, but if it does, it will be far less deadly.

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I agree New York/northeast heavily dense population is a dangerous area.

 

On the other hand first wave New York in first wave was super dangerous and terrible.

Reason was dense population partly, but several hundreds of thousands of Europeans coming into 3 major airports in greater NYC, bringing the virus. Chinese ban was in but no European ban. Terrific management and cooperation of people now means less than 1 % virus rate. 

 

Cuomo"s  big mistake was sending virus affected back to nursing homes. Many died.

 

I forecast 2Nd wave New York will do better than other states, as it is doing now.  We will see.



#15 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 15 September 2020 - 03:50 PM

It's looking like the IFR in a lot of these places is below 0.1%, which is what I've been saying for a long time.

 

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#16 gismeu

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Posted 15 September 2020 - 05:09 PM

Let’s see how the winter goes!

Many children and teenagers get a cold in the winter and then together with Covid, can their immune system handle both?

I’m not so sure.

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#17 claire

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Posted 15 September 2020 - 10:38 PM

The number of cases per 100k people is an important indicator for comparing States with different policies and safety measures.

 

NY was hit hard and very early before there were some of the more effective medicines and procedures to save lives. NY also is a hub for international travel and was infected from Europe, not China, as was most of this nation. NYC, the hardest hit in the State, is also dense in population with mass public transportation congestion. In March and April, NYC had about half the nation's cases and deaths.

 

Yet, the current total cumulative number of cases per 100K people is lower in NY than in Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, and South Carolina with others ready to pull ahead soon, mostly States with far fewer safety measures in place and who were infected well after NY with the advantage of improved life-saving methodologies.

 

Also, America has the highest number of cases and deaths in the industrial world including many poor nations who implemented early national safety and testing strategies enviable for the protection of their citizens while the wealthiest nation who also boasts its leadership in medicine, has had the worst results and leads the world in the death toll.

 

NY also has had the most strict mask-requiring policies and restrictions and currently has among the fewest cases and deaths per capita in the nation. The curve flattened dramatically and has been maintained. NY also tests far more people than any other State - total tested by Sept 12 was 9,300,000 tests and probably about 10 million now. NY has saved a great many lives by following the science and has bought more time for the implementation of new scientific finding that will save more lives.


Edited by claire, 15 September 2020 - 10:47 PM.


#18 traderx

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Posted 16 September 2020 - 01:19 AM

People love it in NYC. Many, many  new outdoor restaurants all over city, because no inside dining,which may change Monday. The out door areas used to be parking spots, and have table separators and spacing for protection.

 

We will see if there is a second wave.

 

As far as the country, of the 192 countries in the world, only 12 have worse death rate than USA as far as death rates now.



#19 K Wave

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Posted 16 September 2020 - 09:59 AM

The number of cases per 100k people is an important indicator for comparing States with different policies and safety measures.

 

NY was hit hard and very early before there were some of the more effective medicines and procedures to save lives. NY also is a hub for international travel and was infected from Europe, not China, as was most of this nation. NYC, the hardest hit in the State, is also dense in population with mass public transportation congestion. In March and April, NYC had about half the nation's cases and deaths.

 

Yet, the current total cumulative number of cases per 100K people is lower in NY than in Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, and South Carolina with others ready to pull ahead soon, mostly States with far fewer safety measures in place and who were infected well after NY with the advantage of improved life-saving methodologies.

 

Also, America has the highest number of cases and deaths in the industrial world including many poor nations who implemented early national safety and testing strategies enviable for the protection of their citizens while the wealthiest nation who also boasts its leadership in medicine, has had the worst results and leads the world in the death toll.

 

NY also has had the most strict mask-requiring policies and restrictions and currently has among the fewest cases and deaths per capita in the nation. The curve flattened dramatically and has been maintained. NY also tests far more people than any other State - total tested by Sept 12 was 9,300,000 tests and probably about 10 million now. NY has saved a great many lives by following the science and has bought more time for the implementation of new scientific finding that will save more lives.

 

Ask the Philippines how their masks are working out (order given April 3) vs Sweden with no mask mandate....

 

Phillipines

phil.png

 

Sweden

sweden.png

 

Texas Governor succumbed to the hysteria and put in Mask order in early July after the Epi curve had already peaked...

GA no mask mandate and Epi Curve nearly identical to Texas...draw your own conclusion...

 

 

Again....NY shutdown after the EPI curve had peaked. Philippines showing that mask may possibly slow the start, but you aint going to deny the curve with pretty much useless surgical/cloth masks that most are wearing.

 

This isn't really all that hard to understand if you look at the data in an unbiased manner.



#20 traderx

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Posted 16 September 2020 - 10:16 AM

Medical people with protection had a very low rate, even though they were very close working with virus patients. Reason prtocective  maskets  and other, at  at work and at home. Check this.