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Massive negative for the market - cum. AD


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#1 chem

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 12:13 PM

The elephant in the room that goes unmentioned is the 3 week negative divergence in NYSE cumulative advance/decline at the all time SPX price high in early September. This is essentially the same setup seen in October 2018 with the spx declining into an ideal EW target for an expanded flat over Christmas. The similarity is profound both are election years, both have divergent momentum at new ATH in the second half of the year, and both display a 3 week divergent cum. AD line at said ATH.

 

Now for the crazy part - Is this a wave 2 correcting the rally out of SPX 667 low?

 

An Elliott view would point to both as B waves of irregular flats at new all-time highs. The difference being in the wave position I have 2018 as the second 3w - 4w of an extended wave 1 out of the '09 low and the 2019 rally as 5w into the early '20 high completing wave 1. Std measurement for an irregular(expanded) flat would have the market undercut its 2020 low by a wide margin as it did in 2018. The ideal target centers around a retest of the double top formed '00 and '07.

 

2020 - a year most would feel can't end soon enough may get even more tumultuous.

 

Chem



#2 LMF

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 12:24 PM

My view is the NYSE advance decline is way too broad as a useful analysis tool anymore......it includes all the small stocks which is like drinking poison. So its the SPX AD now, which looks fine relative to previous market tops of any duration.

#3 Darris

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 01:25 PM

SPX Breadth is expanding at a rapid pace the last 7 days.  Nearly 30 pct point advance since the Sept 23rd low.  Todays data intraday so far, but about right at 2:30pm

 

Date ….. Adv% ….. Adv% 7day ….. SPX Price
9/15/20 ….. 57.17% ….. 49.92% ….. 3401.20
9/16/20 ….. 62.75% ….. 53.37% ….. 3385.49
9/17/20 ….. 34.99% ….. 56.92% ….. 3357.01
9/18/20 ….. 18.09% ….. 48.12% ….. 3319.47
9/21/20 ….. 14.48% ….. 48.63% ….. 3281.06
9/22/20 ….. 66.87% ….. 49.17% ….. 3315.57
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====
9/23/20 ….. 5.56% ….. 37.13% ….. 3236.92
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====
9/24/20 ….. 60.48% ….. 37.60% ….. 3246.59
9/25/20 ….. 86.63% ….. 41.01% ….. 3298.46
9/28/20 ….. 93.43% ….. 49.36% ….. 3351.60
9/29/20 ….. 25.79% ….. 50.46% ….. 3335.47
9/30/20 ….. 75.10% ….. 59.12% ….. 3363.00
10/1/20 ….. 56.31% ….. 57.61% ….. 3380.80
10/2/20 ….. 71.12% ….. 66.98% ….. 3363.80


#4 gismeu

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 01:50 PM

SPX Breadth is expanding at a rapid pace the last 7 days.  Nearly 30 pct point advance since the Sept 23rd low.  Todays data intraday so far, but about right at 2:30pm
 
Date ….. Adv% ….. Adv% 7day ….. SPX Price
9/15/20 ….. 57.17% ….. 49.92% ….. 3401.20
9/16/20 ….. 62.75% ….. 53.37% ….. 3385.49
9/17/20 ….. 34.99% ….. 56.92% ….. 3357.01
9/18/20 ….. 18.09% ….. 48.12% ….. 3319.47
9/21/20 ….. 14.48% ….. 48.63% ….. 3281.06
9/22/20 ….. 66.87% ….. 49.17% ….. 3315.57
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====
9/23/20 ….. 5.56% ….. 37.13% ….. 3236.92
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====
9/24/20 ….. 60.48% ….. 37.60% ….. 3246.59
9/25/20 ….. 86.63% ….. 41.01% ….. 3298.46
9/28/20 ….. 93.43% ….. 49.36% ….. 3351.60
9/29/20 ….. 25.79% ….. 50.46% ….. 3335.47
9/30/20 ….. 75.10% ….. 59.12% ….. 3363.00
10/1/20 ….. 56.31% ….. 57.61% ….. 3380.80
10/2/20 ….. 71.12% ….. 66.98% ….. 3363.80


Did you collect and assemble the data, or did you find that somewhere on the net?

Thanks, gis
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#5 Darris

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 02:50 PM

I collect my own data in excel spreadsheets from daily downloads from Yahoo.  Yahoo keeps price data dividend adjusted on ex-div dates, so price changes are correct each day. I grabbed an intraday download to take a peak at what today was looking like.



#6 gismeu

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 03:01 PM

I collect my own data in excel spreadsheets from daily downloads from Yahoo.  Yahoo keeps price data dividend adjusted on ex-div dates, so price changes are correct each day. I grabbed an intraday download to take a peak at what today was looking like.

thanks, gis


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#7 CLK

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 08:13 PM

I mentioned before that this looked a lot like late 2018. The fact that NYSI has fallen so far, any bounce is just going to be another selling opportunity, I am probably wrong above 3425-3450, but I don't think it even get's past yesterday's highs. I still think it goes way below 3000 and I agree that below March lows is very possible.


Edited by CLK, 02 October 2020 - 08:14 PM.