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Are we ever going to close above the megaphone?


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#1 CLK

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Posted 14 October 2020 - 04:11 PM

Some draw a line from 09 lows, it's been at least the last three years, every time we get there they

sell, I guess we can go another 10 years every time we hit the line the market goes no further, it's a big time waster for people looking for year over year gains, I mean, the market is barely up for the last two years. What happened to the days of 25% yearly gains back to back?  I 'm tired of having to spend money hedging because if I close all longs, then that might be the time it breaks out, in the meantime, it won't go back to 2200, so I am reluctant to close my hedges, so I lose in theta on both sides.



#2 nacho

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Posted 14 October 2020 - 04:16 PM

best trading environment in years...  I hope it never ends



#3 CLK

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Posted 14 October 2020 - 04:31 PM

best trading environment in years...  I hope it never ends

 

 

 

You may never see the lower megaphone line though, if that's what you are counting on, a repeat of Feb.



#4 CLK

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Posted 14 October 2020 - 04:34 PM

SPX is up a little over 25% since Jan. of 2018 at 2700. Should be at 5000 right now.



#5 CLK

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Posted 14 October 2020 - 06:04 PM

No rally tonight, then likely we have seen THE top. 



#6 CLK

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Posted 14 October 2020 - 06:59 PM

AMZN is getting near a revert to the mean below the 50 week ma again, been a long time since below the 200 week ma as well.

 

http://schrts.co/sRbnymPF


Edited by CLK, 14 October 2020 - 07:00 PM.


#7 CLK

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Posted 14 October 2020 - 07:28 PM

https://invst.ly/sgvec



#8 CLK

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 07:37 AM

How is is going to feel to have missed THE top?



#9 CLK

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 07:54 AM

The market has not given much warning this year except for Feb. All you got for Sept. was an overbought RSI, June and Sept. had no MACD divergence, just suddenly fell out of nowhere, this is probably the same, only the top is history. Sentiment, indicators,

P/C, breadth, nothing works.



#10 12SPX

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 08:18 AM

Thats why I keep it simple and just watch the tape, only use old fashioned stochastics for technicals and mainly focus on actual option prices to see how bullish/bearish it is out there.  Was pretty easy to tell there was going to be some kind of pullback with the straight moves higher.  The market can get unrealistic and you know when everyone's watching the sky that eventually there will be some type of pullback lol!  Could still see some more pullback yet as expiration is tomorrow, will be interesting!!  This is also why my main trading platform is just selling options both up and down so I don't need to know the exact direction of the market in the end.  For example as I posted on here Monday that I sold the November 3800 calls for $8.00,,,, they're already down to under $4.00 this morning, looks like I might hang onto them a bit longer!