According to my risk summation system, the day this week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Friday the 23rd of October. There is also a Monday the 19th signal which I believe is probably just an extension of the Friday the 16th signal, so it is not new. There is a null risk signal on Wednesday the 21st, but it is just typical of a soft low occurring. The only "clean" risk signal this week is on Friday the 23rd. The sum of this may produce an upside down "N" shaped week, but as I noted a couple of weeks ago, guessing the week's pattern is a 1 in 243 odds affair.
Last week the Tuesday the 13th mosh pit risk signal was fuzzy as I expected since the turn down did occur on a closing basis Tuesday, but the actual hourly turn occurred about midday on Monday. The Friday risk window should have been characterized as a two day affair since this Monday the 19th high risk signal just looks like a continuation of last Friday's. All in all a pretty poor performance for the system last week.
At the risk of looking like that looney who walked around for years in Times Square wearing the sandwich board sign saying "Repent the End is Near", this week could be pivotal and the Thursday night debate could be the pivot. If this Friday and next Monday are really nasty, the end, or maybe just the beginning of the end, really is nigh. If not, well I guess it just means that I need to change the battery again in my cracked crystal ball. Remember, I subscribe to the philosophy that says if you can't predict correctly, at least predict frequently.
Regards,
Douglas
