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what the hell, out on a limb. the 1850ish low marks the bottom of this correction. the next leg higher begins now


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#731 dougie

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Posted 12 January 2021 - 12:51 PM

 

moreover, since 2000 there has not been one example where HUI weekly RSI was this deeply oversold and then failed to rise to overbought.

 

will this be the first?

Dougie I don't understand this? 14 bar weekly RSI is currently near 44 (not really oversold), at Nov low it was near 29, in March it was near 22. - how do you square that with what you wrote above? To me it currently looks vulnerable to further decline and is "most likely" in a decline to further oversold. Am I misunderstanding something?

 

my bad. not the rsi but the BB indicator at the bottom

and you are right that it doesnt preclude further deciines only that it does preclude serious weekly bearish action based on the past. results may vary...


Edited by dougie, 12 January 2021 - 12:53 PM.


#732 senorBS

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Posted 12 January 2021 - 01:22 PM

 

 

moreover, since 2000 there has not been one example where HUI weekly RSI was this deeply oversold and then failed to rise to overbought.

 

will this be the first?

Dougie I don't understand this? 14 bar weekly RSI is currently near 44 (not really oversold), at Nov low it was near 29, in March it was near 22. - how do you square that with what you wrote above? To me it currently looks vulnerable to further decline and is "most likely" in a decline to further oversold. Am I misunderstanding something?

 

my bad. not the rsi but the BB indicator at the bottom

and you are right that it doesnt preclude further deciines only that it does preclude serious weekly bearish action based on the past. results may vary...

 

I will only add that often in my experience the worst of the "price" damage is done when RSI falls from levels its at now (44 weekly) to an oversold level below 30 as opposed from initial fall from higher levels like 60-80, I am very happy to watch for now. And some stuff might be completing 5 down basis 1-4 hr charts from recent highs that are not to any key to news, that would be bearish if correct.

 

Senor



#733 dougie

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Posted 12 January 2021 - 01:28 PM

 

 

 

moreover, since 2000 there has not been one example where HUI weekly RSI was this deeply oversold and then failed to rise to overbought.

 

will this be the first?

Dougie I don't understand this? 14 bar weekly RSI is currently near 44 (not really oversold), at Nov low it was near 29, in March it was near 22. - how do you square that with what you wrote above? To me it currently looks vulnerable to further decline and is "most likely" in a decline to further oversold. Am I misunderstanding something?

 

my bad. not the rsi but the BB indicator at the bottom

and you are right that it doesnt preclude further deciines only that it does preclude serious weekly bearish action based on the past. results may vary...

 

I will only add that often in my experience the worst of the "price" damage is done when RSI falls from levels its at now (44 weekly) to an oversold level below 30 as opposed from initial fall from higher levels like 60-80, I am very happy to watch for now. And some stuff might be completing 5 down basis 1-4 hr charts from recent highs that are not to any key to news, that would be bearish if correct.

 

Senor

 

cyep

not expanded flats? 3-3- 5 structure in gdx imo



#734 dougie

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Posted 13 January 2021 - 02:28 AM

metals up move sure LOOKS CORRECTIVE; LOOK OUT BELOW?



#735 senorBS

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Posted 13 January 2021 - 08:15 AM

metals up move sure LOOKS CORRECTIVE; LOOK OUT BELOW?

yeah, correction up could easily be done, bottom line for me is I want to see everything in the metals sector take out the Nov lows. However as Mick sings "Ya can't always get whatcha want"yes.gif

 

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#736 linrom1

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Posted 13 January 2021 - 09:34 AM

 

metals up move sure LOOKS CORRECTIVE; LOOK OUT BELOW?

yeah, correction up could easily be done, bottom line for me is I want to see everything in the metals sector take out the Nov lows. However as Mick sings "Ya can't always get whatcha want"yes.gif

 

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FNV down, GC up at open.



#737 senorBS

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Posted 13 January 2021 - 01:17 PM

its like the markets are not open, been a while since I have seen things this slow motion, I do think stuff like GDXJ and HUI have 5 down from recent highs and could be working on wave 2 rallies with a decline leg to below the Nov lows. That's the bearish case as I currently see it

 

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#738 dougie

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Posted 13 January 2021 - 02:45 PM

 

metals up move sure LOOKS CORRECTIVE; LOOK OUT BELOW?

yeah, correction up could easily be done, bottom line for me is I want to see everything in the metals sector take out the Nov lows. However as Mick sings "Ya can't always get whatcha want"yes.gif

 

Senor

 

i duno taking out Nov lows might mean something much deeper



#739 senorBS

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Posted 13 January 2021 - 03:58 PM

 

 

metals up move sure LOOKS CORRECTIVE; LOOK OUT BELOW?

yeah, correction up could easily be done, bottom line for me is I want to see everything in the metals sector take out the Nov lows. However as Mick sings "Ya can't always get whatcha want"yes.gif

 

Senor

 

i duno taking out Nov lows might mean something much deeper

 

Maybe, since I think we are correcting the entire huge move up from the March capitulation lows and this could be a WAVE 2 correction from Aug highs, and in GDX roughly a 50% retrace of that move from 22 to just below 46 would project to the 32 area - just 1 1/4 pts below the Nov low (Wave A?), I don't know does not seem so far fetched to me, but mot married to nada here and just lookin at charts and throwin stuff out there for discussion

 

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#740 JGUITARSLIM

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Posted 13 January 2021 - 04:37 PM

 

metals up move sure LOOKS CORRECTIVE; LOOK OUT BELOW?

yeah, correction up could easily be done, bottom line for me is I want to see everything in the metals sector take out the Nov lows. However as Mick sings "Ya can't always get whatcha want"yes.gif
 
Senor
 
i duno taking out Nov lows might mean something much deeper

Been waiting for such 😉