1426 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

Something is wrong here---that's, the thesis of inflationary boom and falling dollar. I listened to Paul Craig Roberts who was Assistant Sec of Treasury under Reagan on USAwatchdog.org and he made some interesting comments about gold. He said that all the money printing is not going to replace the income lost by millions of unemployed and it's basically meaningless especially when compared to all the private debt. Those things are deflationary.

 

This puts him in the same category now as Robert Pretcher who believes that we're heading towards environment unlike1929 depression. Jim Rickards says that the pandemic related lockdows created "new normal" that will take us 20-years to recover from.

 

So how is gold going to react? I am now more cautious how I will view gold at $1660.

Edited by linrom1, 24 January 2021 - 10:17 AM.

[Smithy]

Linrom,

(1) the price of silver reflects liquidity, i.e. interest rates. Overlay a chart of TIP and silver.

 

(2) silver made its 2011-2020 bear market bottom on 3/18/20 at $11.63. Silver is now in a long term bull market. Reflecting (1), Interest rates have turned up and will go up lock step with silver. Bonus points if you figure out the larger degree count for silver.

 

(3) as rates go up, so does inflation.

 

https://fred.stlouis...g/graph/?g=y6gA

 

The guys you quote don't understand this and don't understand that in March of last year the trend changed from deflation to inflation. Up until then they were right.

 

(4) look at a chart of CRB. It is a textbook perfect completed correction and it has now broken up through the long term downtrend line.

 

https://stockcharts....id=p67563944561

 

Energy is a big component of CRB and prices are rising with it. Rising oil prices push up the cost of everything, causing inflation.

 

(5) the bullish count for gold is compelling. Silver is a shoo-in.

 

(6) DBA (the ags) has risen 27% in 7 months.  No inflation?  Really? 

 

Good trading to you. 

[Smithy]

Looking at your guys one by one:

1) Paul Craig Roberts bases his thinking on fundamentals. The charts are ahead of him, that's why we chart,

 

2) Prechter made his name calling for a depression and has made a lot of money out it. He's locked into that view and can't reverse without getting egg on his face.

 

3) Rickards, in calling for a new normal of recession/depression - you need to know gloom and doom sells. Ask Marc Faber. You can get lots of attention and become famous. With positive news, people yawn. He's talking his book (in both senses) and hasn't done his homework with the charts.

 

Instead, we want to examine facts.

[dougie]

Uh oh...

 

if i had a nickel for every failed H&S...

[dougie]

Something is wrong here---that's, the thesis of inflationary boom and falling dollar. I listened to Paul Craig Roberts who was Assistant Sec of Treasury under Reagan on USAwatchdog.org and he made some interesting comments about gold. He said that all the money printing is not going to replace the income lost by millions of unemployed and it's basically meaningless especially when compared to all the private debt. Those things are deflationary.

 

This puts him in the same category now as Robert Pretcher who believes that we're heading towards environment unlike1929 depression. Jim Rickards says that the pandemic related lockdows created "new normal" that will take us 20-years to recover from.

 

So how is gold going to react? I am now more cautious how I will view gold at $1660.

umm money printing IS inflation.

[dougie]

 

Uh oh...

 

Edited by dougie, 24 January 2021 - 07:09 PM.

[dharma]

rising commodity prices are inflation.  oil , food , basic necessities. it is disguised many ways https://pbs.twimg.co...jpg&name=large\

the fed has been calling for inflation for some time, like they can handle it . they have the tools. not

volcker had to push interest rates through the roof. i think the big surprise is when inflation hits and the mass psychology  changes , then what happens its all about perception.  i think the market will be caught off side.  the fed has been playing down inflation they can control it . well what happens when rates start climbing  ?  after pronouncing rates will stay at 0 for the next few years!???

smithy i  am in your camp.  the surprises are ahead of us

dharma

dougie you do alot of posting , never revealing your position.so i take what you post w/a grain of salt.  thanks

[dougie]

silver needs a c wave down imo

[stubaby]

Uh oh...

 

What everyone knows......

[gannman]

right now the time segmented volume on both gld and slv looks good its positive and pointing up

 

that is bullish so long as it stays that way. with those readings i dont see a lot of damage fwiw

 

this is at 5 am on jan 25 fyi