23 replies to this topic

[dougie]

If one takes a long hard look at the GDX since August 8, 2020, it is very clear that we are trending down in a series of lower highs and lower lows. 

 

In fact this trend is quite persistent and seems to be accelerating.

 

One has to consider the possibility that the metals are the early signal (to the equity markets) that we are about to have a 'solvency event'.

 

There is at least some risk that we are about to have a capitulation event in the miners.....if we break to a new low.

agreed. you positoned for that?

[tradesurfer]

I had been trying to get long certain silver mining stocks and SLV but am flat now.... waiting to see if we get a capitulation plunge down.

 

Currently long volatility and that is it.

[tradesurfer]

I am advising extreme caution on Silver at this time.  

 

Please tell me this is *not* a head and shoulders pattern.  And on the gold quarterly and yearly charts we see a huge bearish divergence between RSI and price.

 

I think what may be about to happen is a persistent dollar rally that is much stronger than anticipated and catches everyone off guard (debt deleveraging)

 

But keep in mind that I have flip flopped between gold silver bullish bearish deflation vs. inflation scenario about once a week .  It is a constant ping pong match trying to figure out the next BIG swing move.

 

[tradesurfer]

This advance decline percent for GDX is not exactly the most bullish looking to me:

 

https://stockcharts....id=p70664127216

[tradesurfer]

US Dollar 6 month price candlesticks showing my favorite reversal candle - the inverted hammer.   I have found that the inverted hammer candle is one of the most reliable reversal signals.    CAUTION ADVISED at this juncture as we get to mid year point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Russ]

Dollar index is breaking out of it's bullish wedge... 

[tradesurfer]

I realize it is probably popular to be bearish now and thus becoming a tired old argument...

 

but at this juncture I guess I have to consider the possibility that the metals continuing to lose at the expense of crypto could become a more permanent phenomenon ?   It has varied to some extent but at the end of the day week month and year it is the concentration of capital that determines the long term bull trend.   

 

If Amazon.com starts accepting crypto, then where does that leave the metals.

 

I guess the metals will always be that disaster hedge that you keep in your basement.  But if you cannot spend your gold on amazon.com,  carry it with you to another country, or transfer it to someone across the globe in 2 seconds, then I can see how the millenials and new class of investors will just *not* be interested in it and thus harm long term demand for metals...

[linrom1]

I realize it is probably popular to be bearish now and thus becoming a tired old argument...

 

but at this juncture I guess I have to consider the possibility that the metals continuing to lose at the expense of crypto could become a more permanent phenomenon ?   It has varied to some extent but at the end of the day week month and year it is the concentration of capital that determines the long term bull trend.   

 

If Amazon.com starts accepting crypto, then where does that leave the metals.

 

I guess the metals will always be that disaster hedge that you keep in your basement.  But if you cannot spend your gold on amazon.com,  carry it with you to another country, or transfer it to someone across the globe in 2 seconds, then I can see how the millenials and new class of investors will just *not* be interested in it and thus harm long term demand for metals...

When the dollar begins to lose its reserve status( probably sooner than later), cryptos will go to zero.

[dougie]

 

I realize it is probably popular to be bearish now and thus becoming a tired old argument...

 

but at this juncture I guess I have to consider the possibility that the metals continuing to lose at the expense of crypto could become a more permanent phenomenon ?   It has varied to some extent but at the end of the day week month and year it is the concentration of capital that determines the long term bull trend.   

 

If Amazon.com starts accepting crypto, then where does that leave the metals.

 

I guess the metals will always be that disaster hedge that you keep in your basement.  But if you cannot spend your gold on amazon.com,  carry it with you to another country, or transfer it to someone across the globe in 2 seconds, then I can see how the millenials and new class of investors will just *not* be interested in it and thus harm long term demand for metals...

When the dollar begins to lose its reserve status( probably sooner than later), cryptos will go to zero.

 

why?

[Russ]

 

I realize it is probably popular to be bearish now and thus becoming a tired old argument...

 

but at this juncture I guess I have to consider the possibility that the metals continuing to lose at the expense of crypto could become a more permanent phenomenon ?   It has varied to some extent but at the end of the day week month and year it is the concentration of capital that determines the long term bull trend.   

 

If Amazon.com starts accepting crypto, then where does that leave the metals.

 

I guess the metals will always be that disaster hedge that you keep in your basement.  But if you cannot spend your gold on amazon.com,  carry it with you to another country, or transfer it to someone across the globe in 2 seconds, then I can see how the millenials and new class of investors will just *not* be interested in it and thus harm long term demand for metals...

When the dollar begins to lose its reserve status( probably sooner than later), cryptos will go to zero.

 

What is to replace the dollar? Yuan?