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The official gold bearish thread

Trying to stay open minded

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#21 linrom1

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Posted 07 August 2021 - 09:52 AM

 

 

I realize it is probably popular to be bearish now and thus becoming a tired old argument...

 

but at this juncture I guess I have to consider the possibility that the metals continuing to lose at the expense of crypto could become a more permanent phenomenon ?   It has varied to some extent but at the end of the day week month and year it is the concentration of capital that determines the long term bull trend.   

 

If Amazon.com starts accepting crypto, then where does that leave the metals.

 

I guess the metals will always be that disaster hedge that you keep in your basement.  But if you cannot spend your gold on amazon.com,  carry it with you to another country, or transfer it to someone across the globe in 2 seconds, then I can see how the millenials and new class of investors will just *not* be interested in it and thus harm long term demand for metals...

When the dollar begins to lose its reserve status( probably sooner than later), cryptos will go to zero.

 

What is to replace the dollar? Yuan?

 

I don't know! This is the purview of guys like Rckards and Armstrong.

 

I am thinking that reluctance to accept dollars without clear alternative will reduce global trade. The sort of thing that happened after GFC where banks stopped dealing with each other.

 

There is only one Japan that's indebted to itself. No one else wants others debt.


Edited by linrom1, 07 August 2021 - 09:57 AM.


#22 Russ

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Posted 07 August 2021 - 10:50 AM

 

 

 

I realize it is probably popular to be bearish now and thus becoming a tired old argument...

 

but at this juncture I guess I have to consider the possibility that the metals continuing to lose at the expense of crypto could become a more permanent phenomenon ?   It has varied to some extent but at the end of the day week month and year it is the concentration of capital that determines the long term bull trend.   

 

If Amazon.com starts accepting crypto, then where does that leave the metals.

 

I guess the metals will always be that disaster hedge that you keep in your basement.  But if you cannot spend your gold on amazon.com,  carry it with you to another country, or transfer it to someone across the globe in 2 seconds, then I can see how the millenials and new class of investors will just *not* be interested in it and thus harm long term demand for metals...

When the dollar begins to lose its reserve status( probably sooner than later), cryptos will go to zero.

 

What is to replace the dollar? Yuan?

 

I don't know! This is the purview of guys like Rckards and Armstrong.

 

I am thinking that reluctance to accept dollars without clear alternative will reduce global trade. The sort of thing that happened after GFC where banks stopped dealing with each other.

 

There is only one Japan that's indebted to itself. No one else wants others debt.

 

Given that Armstrong is predicting that China will become the financial center of the world by 2037 that would argue the Yuan will be number one and he pretty much thinks the west in general will have 'crashed and burned' with the USA broken up into four new countries as well as the European Union gone. He does not think that Klaus Schwab and the IMF will be successful in controlling the economy with the 'great reset'. 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



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#23 dougie

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Posted 07 August 2021 - 06:25 PM

in a transition, cryptos will be more not less useful



#24 tradesurfer

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Posted 10 December 2021 - 01:12 AM

I have to say one of my number one biggest concerns right now for the entire gold scenario is that so many supposedly pro analysts keep touting this supposed huge cup and handle pattern in the gold price.   It is quite astonishing.

 

The problem is that the distance between the start of the cup and the beginning of the handle is massive, almost 10 years.

 

If we look at the longer term time frame chart of the gold price in log scale, it looks more like a massive double top with a slight throwover the previous high.  A breaking back down into the cup could send it all the way back to 1000 or 1200, the exact opposite of what most can even imagine at this point.

 

This whole inflation news has become so mainstream now I guess I would not be surprised to see a massive 3 month deflationary collapse starting in 2022.