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Risk Windows This Week


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 09 November 2020 - 03:53 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday the 9th, Tuesday the 10th and Thursday the 12th.  The nature of the signal on the 10th is most often associated with a low.  Given the giddy market this morning, it may be just a minor low in this new stampede to Nirvana.  The signal type on the 9th and 12th are more commonly tops or accelerations of the current trend.  Despite my personal paraskevidekatriaphobia, Friday the 13th does not top the risk summation list.  

 

Last week the risk window on Monday was just a continuation of the low in the risk window on Friday October the 30th.  The Wednesday risk window didn't amount to a hill of beans and the little turn down during Friday's risk window is being crushed by this morning's futures, so all in all a pretty abysmal week for my system.  To top it off with a cherry, the DJIA double top mirage that I was seeing in the distance was pronounced dead as a dodo.  Any remaining bears were run over, shot, hanged and generally furriered into ugly coats all week long.  

 

Last week there was a FED day that was largely ignored given all the election excitement, but with a continuation of gridlock government now all but assured, the FED is now, again, put squarely front and center of the economic stimulus game.  The promise of even more FED largesse definitely helped rocket the market last week.   I guess it's be long or be wrong until the chickens come home to roost, or maybe just a bullet proof black swan that can somehow manage to fly through the hail of FED gunfire across the East River to Wall Street. 

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 LMF

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Posted 09 November 2020 - 04:05 AM

The rally should keep going until we get much closer to the Jan 5 runoff elections for the 2 GA senate seats. Senate is currently tied at 48-48.

Lee

#3 Douglas

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Posted 09 November 2020 - 07:31 AM

Pfizer just injected nitromethane into the market supercharger with its 90% effective vaccine news release, so yea, up it is, clearly an acceleration day continuing the up trend.  That crackling sound you hear is shorts deep fat frying in a pan of bear lard.  I think you'll find that once the current counting fiasco is sorted, the Senate will be 48 blue and 50 red with the two seats in Georgia still up for grabs which could make it even-steven.   Not likely, but who knows, stranger things are happening every day in these weird times. 

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 09 November 2020 - 07:31 AM.


#4 LMF

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Posted 09 November 2020 - 10:07 AM

Clarified this morning......republican 48-46 right now with 2 independents that are aligned with the democrats. The GA runoffs are a done deal because the winner has to get 50 percent which didnt happen last week.