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0 Partially Short, 0 Short and 0 Bear Fearless Forecasters

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#1 Douglas



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Posted 12 November 2020 - 02:40 PM

Can anyone confirm that, like today and yesterday, when there are 0 Partial Shorts, 0 Shorts and 0 Bears in Mark's daily sentiment survey, in relatively short order things tend to go south at least for a day or so, or is my rusty memory just playing up again?  Thanks.




#2 tsharp



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Posted 12 November 2020 - 04:11 PM

I don't do the surveys here, though my signal has been short from 3600 for a couple days now, and seems likely to find a bottom sooner than later.






    Mark S. Young

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Posted 12 November 2020 - 04:53 PM

When there aren't any shorts, which is rare, as often as not it's Bullish, VST. The data-set is small though.


More troubling is the huge jump in Bullishness at AAII and NAAIM.



Of course, top picking is tricky.

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#4 Douglas



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Posted 12 November 2020 - 06:48 PM

Thanks, Mark.  I usually don't take a look at AAII until Saturday when I do the weekly charts.  More than two and a half years since AAII has been this bullish.  I guess the combination of the prospects for a 90% vaccine, putting the election more or less in the rear view mirror and this nascent rally have stirred the happy juices in the bulls. 


You're dead right about the difficulty of top calling.  With Jerry and the other FED boys still manning the pumps, any pull backs will likely be bought, so shorts not only have to be right, but also quick to take any profits home making it twice as difficult as just buying the dip and waiting until the inevitable intervention bails you out.




Edited by Douglas, 12 November 2020 - 06:48 PM.