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Resilient BULLS hold support, new ATHs soon


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 21 November 2020 - 08:52 PM

Opportunities all week for Bears to take it down even more but they just could not. So, when it is not going down then it 

has to go up. Seasonally Bullish holiday week -- so I think there could be new ATHs in SPX, possibly NQ also. 

 

BUT.... it is the POLITICAL ANALYSIS that is driving this market recently so unless it is quiet on that front, expect 

more nervous jagged market behavior. There seems to be more anxiety about the incumbent ..... strange year, when even stranger things can happen !

 

Another profitable week, my best trading period ever has been this September to now, and I have learned too many lessons during past 33 years to take too many risks since this market can punish you painfully. 

 

So, I want to finish November in a cautious mode, and ditto for December, but I forecast a wild & cray December & January.

 

Holding only 4 SPY JAN PUTS in LT & RISK portfolios 

 

Will buy by the tons if market declines by more than 3 to 5%, will gradually open longs on any decline.... maybe this holiday week will be the exception as has been this year so except a big drop! Doubt it.................

 

 

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 21 November 2020 - 08:55 PM

Have a great weekend! After breaking out, #ES_F spent 2 weeks now consolidating into a clean pennant. Decision time now Plan next week: 3530 & 3500 are supports. If they hold, a breakout of the pennant to 3660 & 3720 is in play. Warning though: 3500 fails we sell to 3455 & 3390
 
 
Note: I would like lower ideally to start the week to 3530 or 3500 as shown. At 3500 this pennant would morph into a falling wedge which would be a sufficient pattern to take this to those higher targets. It is also the "last chance" pattern before what would be deeper selling

 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 21 November 2020 - 08:57 PM

DOWN? 

 

Saturday Poll (late with it this week!) The next 100 points for the S&P?
 
UP
46.2%
 
DOWN
53.8%
2,404 votes · Final results


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 21 November 2020 - 09:01 PM

 
 
ANuUI5dZ_bigger.jpg
 
With the #market extended, overbought, and a very high level of #stocks above the 200-dma, taking a bit of #risk off the table makes sense. As noted by momentum chasers are ignoring the #risk of high prices. https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risk-exceeds-reward-why-we-took-profits-11-20-20/


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 21 November 2020 - 09:02 PM

 
Arguably the rally already occurred.
Quote Tweet
 
 
default_profile_mini.png
 
the_deacon_on_the_hill
 
@DeaconOnHill
· Nov 20
Replying to @DougKass
Does not seasonality / typical year-end behavior favor bulls here? Especially after the October decline into the election? There is also the argument that volatility was overbought going into the election and that it is likely to collapse further going into December.


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 21 November 2020 - 09:03 PM

Be careful in going too far back in history to discuss seasonality. It changes. See https://mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/how_seasonality_has_changed/.


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 21 November 2020 - 09:07 PM

McClellanOsc_928.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 21 November 2020 - 09:08 PM

Active managers are so bullish they're leveraged long. Instead of assuming that's a contrarian negative, let's take 30 seconds to check. The avg return 3 months later was 5%, with the 3 precedents all being higher, so.


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 21 November 2020 - 09:11 PM

Will they also sell this rally on Monday? 

Expect a surge of good vaccine news....

alrBF_dr_bigger.jpg
 
FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the Covid-19 treatment given to President Trump after he contracted the coronavirus
 
alrBF_dr_bigger.jpg
 
FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the Covid-19 treatment given to President Trump after he contracted the coronavirus


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 21 November 2020 - 09:16 PM

We Now Have Confirmation That It's Full Speed Ahead for this Secular Bull Market
Tom Bowley |  November 20, 2020 at 10:36 PM
 

I'm going to keep this article short and sweet. We're going higher.

If you're still convinced that the U.S. stock market is staring at a doom-and-gloom environment, I don't know what to say. Several months ago, I created a User-Defined Index, my "Pandemic Index", to track the worst-performing indexes during the pandemic. This index of the WORST groups just broke out. Here's the chart:

80d7c76d-a45d-4d9d-9692-9735e3654726.jpg

The hard-hit pandemic industries like airlines, hotels, etc., are rebounding. You can bury your head in the sand if you'd like, but the truth is the truth. The worst-performing groups in March and April are now showing leadership, and that is incredibly bullish, in my view. A secular bull market requires wide participation, so I didn't believe true confirmation would arrive until my Pandemic Index broke out. Well, it broke out. The above chart shows that the S&P 500 is trading just beneath where it was at the early-September high. The Pandemic Index is well above its early-September level and it just cleared its high from June.

One lagging group in March and April is now leading the charge. It's hotels ($DJUSLG). The more industry groups that break out, the more bullish it is for U.S. equities. Hotels broke out with the vaccine news last Monday. Check it out:

https://stockcharts....n-that-227.html